Formula One is is on the brink of exciting times ahead. After the utter dominance of Red Bull Racing in 2023, the Milton Keynes based team faltered last season squandering an early season big advantage only to lose the coveted constructors title to McLaren who last claimed the trophy in 1998.
McLaren delivered a miraculous 164 points turnaround from the 2024 Austrian Grand Prix to the chequered flag in Abu Dhabi, where they finished a whopping 77 points ahead of the former world champions.
Yet late in the year it was Ferrari who were the form team, having lost their way during the late European season of racing. Coming into the final two triple header weekends, the Scuderia were 75 points behind the Woking based F1 team, only to finish just 14 points adrift of McLaren in the final team standings.
FIA dithering cost Ferrari dear
Ferrari blamed the FIA’s dithering over a decision over the legality of the McLaren flexi-wings for the delay in their comeback, which just one race later may well have seen the 2024 team championship taken by the iconic Italian team.
This year the teams face the daunting prospect of both delivering title winning cars for 2025 while they get to grasps with the biggest regulation change in F1 history coming for 2026. Both power units and chassis will be radically different from the current crop of cars, although they will retain an element of the ground effect principles revived in 2022.
Whilst every year is vitally important, the team which emerges ahead early in 2026 will have a significant advantage. This means there will be way more resource spent this year on the 2026 cars than would be usual in na season when the regulations remain stable.
To this end Fred Vasseur believes the advantage for the coming campaign will sit with whoever brings the most competitive car to the early flyway races starting in March. In fact the die may well be cast before the F1 circus begins its European leg of the year as more resources become allocated to the 2026 projects.
Ferrari modify Hamilton’s car ahead of next test
“You’re dead” says Ferrari boss
In terms of rhetoric, the Ferrari boss is dramatic in his explanations of the task ahead. “Everyone has to take risks. If you don’t, you’re dead,” Vasseur told F1.com. “Developing a new car is always complicated, but it is even more so this year because 2025 will not be a season like the others.”
McLaren have started both of the last two F1 seasons on the back foot. In 2023, they scored just 17 points across the first eight rounds leaving them a mountain to chase down the 304 ;point deficit they had to Red Bull come the end of the Canadian GP. This proved to be a bridge to far and despise the Woking F1 outfit winning the team title in 2024, their start to the year was modest as they suffered an 88 point deficit to the world champions come the Canadian Grand Prix again.
“We will have to start working on 2026 soon and for this reason, it will be essential to be competitive straight away in Bahrain,” says the Ferrari boss to F1.com. “With development that will be stopped early, those who start late will have little chance of recovering,” Vasseur predicts.
Ferrari have the added pressure of getting their huge name and big money signing, Lewis Hamilton up to speed. The seven times world champion suffered his worst season ever in F1 last year, being whipped by team mates George Russell 19-5 I Grand Prix qualifying.
Newey opens up about leaving Red Bull
Hamilton retrained on braking by Ferrari
As Toto Wolff revealed last year, Lewis has struggled with the new breed of F1 ground effect cars which are significantly different under braking than the car designs Hamilton used to win all his titles. Speaking to AMuS in the autumn of 2024, the Mercedes boss explained: “He [Hamilton] brakes late and throws the car aggressively into the corner. The car and the tyres can’t handle that.
“With these cars, it is sometimes better to drive at 98 percent. And that applies even more to qualifying than the race,” Wolff concluded. This appeared to dramatically affect Lewis in qualifying, yet come race day on Sunday the old Lewis Hamilton would often return to the fore. Having missed out on Q3 in Las Vegas, Hamilton stormed through the field come the Grand Prix, closing his team mate down right to the chequered flag which delivered a Mercedes 1-2 for the first time since 2021.
Now Pablo Montoya, seven time Grand Prix winner and Indy500 champion echoes Wolff’s words as he previews the challenge ahead of both Hamilton and Ferrari. “Hamilton’s chances of winning the championship will depend on how comfortable he is and how good of a car Ferrari can produce,” Montoya says. “It would be a hell of a story if he wins it.”
Yet of course there’s the small matter of Ferrari protege and eight time GP victor, Charles Leclerc for Lewis to overcome. “If Charles plays the season smartly, plays nice with Hamilton but keeps outperforming him, then the whole of Ferrari will support Leclerc,” he notes. Ferrari have been working with Hamilton on refining his braking technique during tests to date.
Melbourne outsider gains greater significance
“Leclerc is managed by politically smart people and I think they will keep telling him to play the long-term game. That’s very important. If Leclerc plays the long-term game and knows that Lewis Hamilton won’t be at Ferrari forever, he’ll need to have the team’s support until then.”
If the Ferrari boss is correct the 20th running of the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne will be crucial in understanding which team and driver are ahead in the pecking order. Yet Melbourne is a strange circuit, with only Michael Schumacher, Jenson Button and Sebastian Vettel claiming more than two victories around the Albert Park street like track.
Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen have not had the greatest success down under, with the seven times world champion winning in 2008/2015. Meanwhile Verstappen’s record is more than chequered in Melbourne, wining once in 2023 and claiming a P3 podium in 2019, along with four DNF’s there across his F1 career.
Melbourne has proven to be an outlier when considering early season form, with world champion Max Verstappen failing to finish two of the last three outings down under.
Melbourne circuit altered following HUGE Russell crash
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For Formula One fans who predate the Netflix ‘Drive to Survive” series, the start of the 2026 season will be a throw back to pre-seasons of yesteryear as the approved testing programme will be expanded over the current three days allowed.
Prior to the introduction of the budget cap F1 fans could book themselves a sojourn on the Iberian peninsula for three or four days testing at the Circuit de Jerez where the teams would perform what they described as a shakedown.
Here the cars were put through their paces, even pushed to fail in an attempt to understand the fundamentals of the new car designs and construction. This test was followed by two four days tests in Barcelona, which is one of the best all round tests of the aerodynamics of an F1 car. A car that goes well in Barcelona is said to go well pretty much everywhere…,READ MORE
The Judge, a nom de plume of an experienced F1 journalist and site founder with long-standing sources across the paddock. With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
