Lewis Hamilton’s bombshell announcement of his move to Ferrari in 2025 injected early fizz into this season’s driver market speculations. With thirteen F1 pilots out of contract this year, it was always set to be one of intrigue as the season progressed, but with news that Fernando Alonso has extended his contract with Aston Martin, driver decisions may begin to take on an air of expected normality.

Of course Mercedes have what once was a top seat to fill with Hamilton leaving, but the attraction of joining the eight times world champions has faded somewhat since the new ground effect car designs came on the scene back in 2022. The silver arrows have struggled with three consecutive ground effect cars and are arguably joint fifth quickest at present alongside Aston Martin who are just one point behind the Brackley squad.

 

 

 

Alonso makes a quick decision

Indeed times have changed and Fernando Alonso would have once given his right arm to drive a Mercedes F1 car. The fact that Alonso chose to remain with Aston Martin while Mercedes have Hamilton’s seat unfilled, is telling.

Of course Fernando has seen the £200m of infrastructure invested in the Silverstone based squad come to completion this season, and with better simulation tools, production equipment and a brand new wind tunnel, Aston Martin are well placed to deliver their in season development better than ever before.

Alonso is tied at present with the best placed Mercedes driver, George Russell and should Aston’s team owner decide to replace his son with a driver better suited to the job, the Silverstone based team would be well clear of their silver arrows rivals by now.

Prior to announcing he was remaining with Aston Martin, Fernando and his representatives would have been in feverish contact with Red Bull to see if there was a sliver of hope the Spaniard could race there in 2025. Rumours of Max leaving for pastures new meant there could have been a double opportunity at Red Bull should Sergio Perez fade away as he did last year.

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Sainz chased by Audi

With McLaren and Ferrari seats locked up, Alonso eventually made the only sensible decision open to him, which was to remain with Aston Martin. Carlos Sainz on the other hand faces a whole different future having been dropped by Ferrari for Hamilton next year.

Since the announcement from Maranello, Carlos Sainz has been the undisputed number one driver for the Scuderia and has either won or finished on the podium in each race he’s contested this season. Carlos sits just four points behind his team mate, but of course failed to compete in Saudi Arabia following an emergency operation to remove his appendix.

Like any move for Fernando, the choices for Carlos may well be fewer than current speculation suggests. The Sainz family has been linked with the new Audi project given Carlos Sainz Snr drives for the team in the Dakar rally competition.

Yet Audi are not going to be competitive until at least 2027/8, if their technical director, is to be believed and Sainz now aged 29 is in his prime. The German marque entering F1 for its first time ever, is reported to have agreed terms with Nico Hulkenberg to join them next year. 

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The lure of the new Mercedes PU

Both Chinese driver Zhou Guanyu and Valtteri Bottas are out of contract and with Sainz a target for Sauber/Audi and Hulkenberg apparently all but signed up, the future for the Kick Sauber current pairing is looking bleak indeed.

Much has been made in the F1 media about Mercedes and Ferrari ultimately doing a swap with drivers Hamilton and Sainz, with the pull for Carlos being Mercedes track record on designing new F1 power units. In 2014 the Brackley based team arrived with an all new shiny V6 hybrid turbo, which blew the field away for years.

Yet its not a given this can happen again given the recent introduction of spending limits for the design and build of the 2026 new powertrains. Previously it was reported Mercedes spent over $1bn on research and development for their all conquering 2014 offering.

From Mercedes perspective, Sainz is probably not the right fit either. The team lost out to Red Bull on signing Max Verstappen back in 2015 something Toto Wolff admits was a mistake. Yet at the time the team had experienced drivers Rosberg and Hamilton going head to head and so there was no room at the inn for the young Dutch star in the making.

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Mercedes door closing for Sainz

Yet Wolff has another gem in the rough in Kimi Antonelli, a junior driver Mercedes has been cultivating. The Italian 17 year old is driving his first season of F2 with top team Prema and Toto set the tongues wagging when he intimated Antonelli could be the Hamilton replacement.

Even were Mercedes to give him another year in junior racing or with a team like Williams to ease him into F1, Sainz is unlikely to want a one year deal which is all Wolff’s team has on offer.

Now a report in the Kolner Express newspaper claims that Wolff has another stop gap measure or ‘plan B’ for next year in Esteban Ocon. Mercedes junior programme chief Gwen Lagrue confirmed recently that Esteban Ocon is still being managed by Mercedes. 

“He’s still very linked to us. He’s an Alpine driver, and he’s fully committed to Alpine, but we’re still managing his career,” Lagrue told The Race.

Wolff contradicts Hamilton’s assessment

 

 

 

Wolff expects trouble to continue in 2025

Ocon is driving for Alpine at present but the team looks as though it is imploding fro the top down. Having sacked four senior members of the management team, the new face of Alpine F1 has delivered a car for this year, too overweight and currently trailing around at the back of the field.

Ocon would jump at the chance of taking Lewis Hamilton’s place and if the report is true, it appears another F1 door has been closed in Carlos Sainz face.

When asked last time about his thoughts on Hamilton’s replacement, Toto mused: “We could take a young driver and give him the opportunity to immediately fight for victories without much pressure, or put an experienced driver in the car who can help us get out of our current situation.”

On hearing his team boss words, Lewis may be delighted he’s on his way to Ferrari given Wolff expects his team will be in a similar situation next season – and need help to “get us out of our current situation.”

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Audi may be Sainz’s best offer

Unless Red Bull ditch Sergio Perez or Max Verstappen leaves, the realistic options for Carlos have narrowed very quickly. Veteran F1 Swiss writer now claims, “CEO Andreas Seidl has long since realised that new drivers are needed [at Sauber]”, reports Blick newspaper.

“(Valtteri) Bottas and (Guanyu) Zhou are a thing of the past. New motivation is needed in the cockpit now. Even the most loyal Sauber fans agree on this,” Roger Benoit added.

So with Red Bull playing a wait and see game with their drivers, it could be an offer from Audi is the best Carlos can hope for. Another option is driving for Williams but the Spaniard has said: “I don’t want to be stuck in the midfield or even further back in 2025.”

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Hamilton has “had his time” says F1 drive

As a seven time Formula One world champion, Lewis Hamilton knowns how to manage his profile in the media. The bombshell he dropped revealing he was leaving for Ferrari next season next season was timed to cause maximum embarrassment for Mercedes.

Having failed to agree a deal which would see him end his career with the Brackley based team, Hamilton went back to Ferrari with whom he’d had discussions before resigning for Mercedes to let them know he was ready to accept their offer…. READ MORE