Last Updated on February 25 2024, 8:24 am

Insider: Shock Mercedes Decline – In an insightful article penned by Carlo, a seasoned contributor to the TJ13 website, the potential ramifications of Lewis Hamilton’s anticipated move to Maranello in 2025 are explored with a depth that only a lifelong Formula 1 aficionado could provide.

Carlo, with his background as a former Formula Ford racer and a professional fan of the sport, can certainly be described as an ‘insider’ in Formula 1, delves into the complexities of the F1 world, shedding light on what Hamilton’s switch says about the internal dynamics at Mercedes.

 

Unveiling the Undercurrents at Mercedes

By Carlo

Who knew that my opinion piece about James Allison on January 9th would almost precede the seismic announcement of Lewis Hamilton heading to Maranello for 2025. I mean, almost all the internet sites I have been reading are suggesting that Lewis leaving, before the Mercedes has even run, is a damning indictment of what he thinks of the current technical direction at Mercedes. It appears, all is not well in Toto’s land.

To the readers who believe I am an angry harbinger that follows my own perspective – through hate filled eyes – I offer my defence. I have followed F1 throughout my life and it remains my dominant fetish. I have a trio of DVD wallets that contain over 700 Grand Prix from 1967 to the present day.

To add to this, there’s decades of Autosport, the complete collection of Grand Prix International (1979-1986) and the original ‘Official F1 magazine’ (March 2001-Feb2004).

READ MORE: Mercedes big “sandbagging” rumour

 

 

 

A Life Immersed in Motorsport History

By all accounts, I am the easiest person to buy gifts for at Xmas or my birthday, hence why my office is filled with tomes of all eras and hues relating to my beloved sport. In addition are years of programmes from Grand Prix, Goodwood Festival’s of Speed and other international races.

I offer this information, not because I’m wanting smoke directed to my rear but to highlight that my opinions are based on the histories as I’ve witnessed them.

Now I appreciate this sounds all about me, but unlike the social media phenomenon the younger generations live by I don’t pose for endless hours to be ‘liked’. A trusted friend gave this article a proof read and he commented on the previous paragraphs as being somewhat cocky. He then continued to state that that was acceptable as I am Italian, whatever that’s meant to imply…

As we pass through February I still haven’t quite come to terms with Hamilton’s future move to Italy and that truly belongs in a separate piece but I’m fascinated by the implications of how his move actually reflects upon Mercedes.

 

 

Insight into Mercedes’ Technical Turmoil

For years, I’ve made no secret of my opinion of James Allison. It’s nothing personal against the man, I just feel that at times the British media over-inflate the hype surrounding an individual.

History shows a narrative in hindsight but patterns become clear and after Allison joined Mercedes, both Andrew Cowell and Aldo Costa left the team in short time. It may be nothing personal in their respective decisions or it could be a feeling of being under-valued. I have to add I’ve never read any interview from the two individuals suggesting otherwise.

I remember Ross Brawn leaving Ferrari after the Michael Schumacher era. At the time, the main race engineer was an ambitious Nigel Stepney and he was envisaging he would replace Brawn. Having failed to gain promotion he left the team and maliciously was the architect behind passing a 780 page dossier of Ferrari secrets to Mclaren at the end of 2006.

In more recent time, Laurent Mekies left Ferrari when Fred Vasseur was appointed because he had expected to be leading the team following Binotto’s resignation. It’s very obvious when you talk of F1, it’s not only the drivers who have over-inflated ego’s but every member of the team’s organisation. These are driven individuals after all.

Let’s be honest, after unprecedented success, 2022 and 2023 did not go according to the Mercedes masterplan. In fact, I’d suggest they failed miserably and only the fact they are a giant organisation with, historically, a winning mind-set allowed them to recover some respectability but for someone of Lewis’ immense success, respectability is not sufficient. With a second winless season and seemingly losing faith in the team’s processes it was perhaps inevitable he’d be searching for a way out.

 

 

Mercedes’ Search for a Winning Formula

This all makes me question why the British media believes that Toto will target and succeed in getting Verstappen to the Silver Arrows. Or any number of other choices simply because it’s Mercedes.

With the engine not being the dominant force it once was and the chassis having proven temperamental over the last two years, I’d suggest that Mercedes is in urgent need of rebuilding but Wolff has never built a successful team just spear-headed it following its conception under the auspices of Ross Brawn.

I wrote in my opinion piece about ‘Horner’s culling’ recently that irrespective of his 20 years as Team Principal, engineers and drivers don’t join his team because of him but because Adrian Newey is the drawer.

Horner reacts in tense press conference

 

 

 

Which is why I honestly cannot see Verstappen looking to join the Silver Arrows at this stage. The team and personnel recruited by Brawn has withered despite the 8 years of success and I do not believe Wolff has the necessary experience or engineering stardom to recruit replacements.

Watching Max since he joined the F1 grid he’s a driver who seeks to be in the best car so he can dominate and destroy his opponents. I’ve never had the impression he’s interested in building a team up like Schumacher did with Ferrari.

This isn’t a criticism of the Dutch driver, as 73 years of F1 history proves that only a handful of World Champions want to ‘build’ a team up. The majority seek to be in winning machinery as quickly as possible – almost like a birth rite. Be it Fangio, Clark, Senna, Prost, Vettel, Hamilton – they all wanted the best available car.

To counter this, Jack Brabham, Jackie Stewart, Niki Lauda, Mario Andretti and Michael Schumacher all accepted the challenge of building a team up to title success.

So Max to Mercedes? History suggests otherwise. He has a long contract until 2028 which would require a huge pay-out to Red Bull and we all know that on a professional level, Wolff and Horner despise each other. So contrary to sensationalist headlines, until Mercedes show significant progress Max won’t be seeking to prove Lewis wrong.

So Alex Albon, current Williams-Mercedes driver? From the drivers point of view it’s a marked improvement from his current team so essentially a no-brainer but he’s reportedly signed a 3 year Red Bull contract post 2025.

Marko sheds light on Verstappen ‘departure’

 

 

 

Lando Norris is often mentioned with speculative moves and continues committing himself to Mclaren who appear to at last be functioning like a top team. His position though is hardly invidious.

Oscar Piastri was a rookie last year and had not competed in any major series in 2022 yet had similar speed to the seasoned Norris, only lacking the nuanced knowledge of the Pirelli tyres but that offset won’t last forever.

Again though, why would two young drivers with long term contracts at a team that is getting stronger year on year give up their berth for a Silver Arrow seat that Hamilton has effectively damned with his switch to the Ferrari project.

Based purely on conjecture, around this time last year, a lot of the media narrative was based around Charles Leclerc speaking in terms that made his move away from Ferrari a foregone conclusion. The proposed partnership with Hamilton at Mercedes; or if Lewis retired to partner Russell.

Something does not compute, almost as though Russell isn’t as elite as Wolff and co suspected. Of course, now he is the team-leader, he really is, Toto said so. And still it always feels there’s a ‘but’ being avoided.

Red Bull/Ford deal in jeopardy? 

 

 

 

 

Looking Ahead: Mercedes’ Strategy for Future Success and Driver Development

What realistic options are left for a team that appears to be declining and in urgent need of rebuilding.

Personally I can’t see Alonso leaving an ambitious Aston Martin project to head over to a James Allison led team, he terminated his contract early at Ferrari when the designer joined. Unless he gets wind that Honda will not have him at AMR or he finally slows down in his mid 40’s.

There’s also the small fact that Mercedes may not have forgiven him for the $100 million fine they ended up paying for McLaren – because of the aforementioned Ferrari dossier Mclaren were found guilty of copying back in 2007 when they supplied Woking with engines.

Sainz almost believed his own sense of worth to be figuratively higher than Ferrari’s, where he tried to strong arm the team into a longer commitment and completely misread the landscape.

Numerous times Audi has been linked to him and there is a familial connection through his father. He knows Andreas Seidl and James Key from his time at McLaren but would likely have noticed how improved the McLaren team has been since Key was ushered through the exit door. Would Toto sign him for a short term till his young superstar is of age?

As to Bottas, oh please. He was humiliated by Russell on his debut and remains a middling ability driver at best. Having said that, he does what he’s told, still managed by Wolff and wouldn’t be disheartened by a poor Mercedes after his time at Sauber.

McLaren boss sounds down beat after testing day 2

 

 

 

I’m going to take a punt here. The normal route, had Hamilton stayed at Mercedes, would have been to place Andrea Kimi Antonelli at Williams for a year or two to learn the ropes.

With the rug pulled out from under Wolff’s feet, if Antonelli lives up to the hype this season, he joins Mercedes in 2025.

I believe the team are aware they’re in a rebuilding program and have fallen behind. The focus isn’t on this season, and I doubt 2025 will be much better if Hamilton’s departure suggests the perceived lack of confidence. So realistically they begin to focus on 2026 but due to FIA regulations cannot start working on the design yet.

So Antonelli has his rookie year before the regulations change and be ready for 2026. If James Allison is still based in Brackley, I would imagine Kimi would move on to pastures new soon after as history suggests he won’t be winning titles otherwise.

READ MORE: McLaren boss points finger at Red Bull ‘cheating’?

 

 

 

MORE F1 NEWS: Steiner gets a new job

In a turn of events that stunned the Formula One world, the Haas F1 Team announced that Guenther Steiner, its long-serving team principal, would be sacked at the start of 2024. The news, which broke in January, marked a significant change for the American outfit and ended a chapter that saw Haas emerge as a plucky contender in the world of Formula One.

Steiner’s departure not only marks a pivotal change for Haas, but also sparks speculation about his future, with suggestions that his next chapter could unfold in the media landscape, capitalising on his…READ MORE ON THIS STORY