Whilst Red Bull and Max Verstappen dominated F1 in 2023 there were signs of encouragement that the field was indeed closing up y the end of the season. At the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix all 19 cars taking place in Q1 finished the session within 1 second of each other – something the sport has never seen in its 74 year history.

Of course Max Verstappen comfortably won the final race of the year finishing 18 seconds ahead of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc. That meant the Red Bull was 0.3 seconds a lap quicker than the Ferrari over the 58 lap race.

 

 

 

Ferrari tradition of winter media update

Contrast this with the first event of the year in Bahrain. Verstappen won and his nearest non-Red Bull challenger was Alonso 39 seconds behind with Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz a whopping 48 seconds back at the chequered flag.

The gap then over the 57 laps was over 0.8 seconds a lap so there is reason for hope that over the winter this could be closed still further.

Usually teams tell you little about how their winter work is progressing but as Christian Horner recently explained, Ferrari is different from the rest of the field. They are like a “national team” and the interest in their progress is intense in the Italian media.

Over the years Ferrari have given their media updates on how their simulations and wind tunnel testing is progressing though of course these are not usually negative.

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Scuderia over optimistic in 2023

Last year Ferrari told their host of fans the car they were developing for the coming season – the SF-23 – would be lighter, more reliable, have improved aerodynamic efficiency and increased engine power over its predecessor.

Yet instead of hitting the ground running like the SF-75 before it, the 2023 Ferrari was a damp squib. The year previously. Charles Leclerc established a significant lead over Verstappen after four races, but this was not to be the case in ’23 as the Red Bull bandwagon rolled onto the track.

Italian publication La Gazzetta dello Sport is reporting Ferrari have undertake a record amount of winter testing in simulations and wind tunnel work and believe their car for this year his 7/10ths quicker than the SF-23.

Of course if true, this would have eclipsed the RB19 in Abu Dhabi, winning the race by 22 seconds and making the Red Bull car look sedentary.

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Ferrari gain 7/10ths

Yet despite this remarkable claim Fred Vasseur team boss is unhappy so far claims the Gazzetta. Of course Red Bull were so far ahead of the field they stopped developing the RB19 after the Sumer break and were only prevented from a ‘perfect season’ of 100% wins by Carlos Sainz and his stalwart drive in Singapore.

Ferrari won a race and Mercedes didn’t and the red team almost beat their rivals to second in the championship but for some bad luck in Las Vegas.

La Gazzetta continues suggesting senior management believe the 7/10ths improvement is “nothing sensational” and they believe other teams have already improved by half a second. The report adds that Ferrari are not “satisfied” with this progress and expect Red Bull to remain the quickest over a Grand Prix race distance.

In Charles Leclerc the Scuderia have one of the highest rated drivers on the F1 grid. He scored more poles than everyone in ’23 with the exception of Verstappen, though his failure to convert them into race wins was due to the car eating its tyres rather than a lack of ability.

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Vasseur wanted more

At present the team are trying to persuade Leclerc to sign a new five year contract keeping him at Maranello until the end of 2028 – the year Verstappen’s contract ends with Red Bull. Ferrari appear to believe their future should be built around the Monogasque driver and can but hope they give him a car more capable than the one he drive last year.

The hope is that Red Bull have discovered much of the lap time in their RB19 and make smaller gains over the winter than Ferrari’s 7/10ths. Yet even just half a second improvement would see Verstappen and his team still beyond the reach of Ferrari most weekends, though there would be greater opportunity for the Scuderia to steal a win here and there.

Red Bull have clearly stated they will evolve their all conquering RB19, while Ferrari are following the Mercedes philosophy and creating a car Vasseur says is “95%” new components. 

Even of the machinery between the three teams had equal capabilities, Mercedes and Ferrari with their new concepts will find to more difficult to understand their baseline platform each weekend – while Red Bull have all their data form 2023.

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Sainz warning of Verstappen’s reserve

Carlos Sainz is positive over Ferrari’s progress telling media at a recent promo event: “There are still a lot of meetings to analyse everything, in January there will be the review with one month to go and then you will have a better look at everything,” Sainz added.

“Red Bull understands very well what the car has to have with this regulation. You see that on Saturday we can beat them or match them, you see that you are not far away, but in the race it’s half a second per lap, half a minute in the race, it’s deceptive.

“We have all learned that their great advantage is their versatility on Sunday. That’s where I think we have to find the key. In June 2022 we thought we weren’t that far away, as Mercedes thought, but 2023 showed us that we didn’t take the right direction.”

Yet Carlos has a word of caution for the rest of the field having examined closely the phenomena that was Verstappen paired with his Red Bull last year. The Spaniard believes even the winning margins chalked up by the Dutch world champion may not be representative of how fast the Red Bull car could in fact go.

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Red Bull cruising says Carlos

“As for Verstappen‘s dominance, I think he didn’t need to go 100 per cent, he only did it when he needed to and that aspect is what scares me the most.”

“Max has gone 100 per cent when he has had to go 100 per cent. There have been many races where he and Red Bull, looking at telemetry and analysis, were already 10 seconds ahead, they didn’t need to take another five seconds off us and maybe they kept it.”

If Red Bull have the kind of lap time in reserve Sainz suggests, it could be another long season to find out who is the best of the rest and whether Ferrari have made the gains their winter briefing is claiming.

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