Victims of Circumstance: Melbourne 2013

Victims of Circumstance is brought to you by TJ13 Courtroom Reporter & Crime Analyst: Adam Macdonald

In what was an eventful first race of the season, The Victims of Circumstance article makes a fairly low key debut.  With only 4 drivers not finishing the Grand Prix and no major incidents to speak of, it makes for a pretty similar results table.

Pastor Maldonado

Nico Rosberg:
With an electronics failure on his car on lap 27, whilst 4.668 seconds behind his teammate Nico Rosberg was driving a decent, though not particularly inspiring race.  Without the problem he would have most probably taken 6th ahead of Mark Webber.

Pastor Maldonado:
Pastor Maldonado’s non-finish after sending himself into a spin at turn one gets no such reprieve.  Due to this being of his own doing his result remains unchanged.

Daniel Ricciardo:
Daniel Ricciardo was running in 11th when forced to retire on lap 40 after an exhaust problem burnt a hole through his car’s bodywork. Although in contention for a points scoring position he would almost certainly have dropped back, and so can only be awarded the position behind Esteban Gutierrez.

Nico Hulkenberg
Nico Hulkenberg:
And finally, this leaves us on Nico Hulkenberg.    A solid display at Interlagos in the wet/damp conditions meant people had high hopes for the young German.

Although due to not actually doing any running he cannot be awarded a finish and remains a DNF.

This leaves the revised results table looking like this:

Revised Race Position

Driver

Result comparison

Points

Points Difference

Revised WDC

WDC Points Difference

Position

Points

1

Kimi Raikkonen

=

25

=

1

25

=

2

Fernando Alonso

=

18

=

2

18

=

3

Sebastian Vettel

=

15

=

3

15

=

4

Felipe Massa

=

12

=

4

12

=

5

Lewis Hamilton

=

10

=

5

10

=

6

Nico Rosberg

RETIRED

8

+8

6

8

+8

7

Mark Webber

-1

6

-2

7

6

-2

8

Adrian Sutil

-1

4

-2

8

4

-2

9

Paul Di Resta

-1

2

-2

9

2

-2

10

Jenson Button

-1

1

-1

10

1

-1

11

Romain Grosjean

-1

0

-1

11

0 (11th)

-1

12

Sergio Perez

-1

0

=

12

0 (12th)

=

13

Jean-Eric Vergne

-1

0

=

13

0 (13th)

=

14

Daniel Ricciardo

RETIRED

0

=

14

0 (14th)

=

15

Esteban Gutierrez

-2

0

=

15

0 (15th)

=

16

Valtteri Bottas

-2

0

=

16

0 (16th)

=

17

Jules Bianchi

-2

0

=

17

0 (17th)

=

18

Charles Pic

-2

0

=

18

0 (18th)

=

19

Max Chilton

-2

0

=

19

0 (19th)

=

20

Giedo Van Der Garde

-2

0

=

20

0 (20th)

=

21

Pastor Maldonado

=

0

=

=21

0 (X)

=

22

Nico Hulkenberg

=

0

=

=21

0 (X)

=

What they would have said
Again, there would be nothing too different due some professional and fair racing from the entire field.  Particular manoeuvres of note were on lap 31 between Alonso and Hamilton; and Webber and Sutil on lap 52, both into turn 13/14.

The only possible exception to this would be that of Grosjean missing out on a points finish while his flying Finn teammate went on to win.

Unsurprisingly, the focus of the day was on the tyres.  However, the decline of Williams and improvement of Marussia seem to have been largely missed.  Food for thought…

Quote of the day
As Thomas Alva Edison said, “Genius is 1% inspiration, 99% perspiration.”  Apparently nobody told the Ice man this, as he was cool under pressure as ever. He did almost break into a smile on the podium, although this was only at the announcement he could now get his hands on the champagne.Australia Podium

9 responses to “Victims of Circumstance: Melbourne 2013

  1. This is a great idea, looking forward to following it for fun! Any thoughts about retrofitting it for last year, as a bit of an excercise? Might be a lot of work though!

    Also can you send this to the Castrol GP predictor team, you just bumped me up by about 10 points!

  2. Thank you, I agree with Adam Parsons.

    Does such a table exist (just for the top 10 amended positions) for any of the last two or three years?

  3. This is currently a brand new idea. I’d noticed nowhere else was doing anything like this, and after reading the comments of people saying Vettel wasn’t worthy of the title I did roughly total back the points around time of the Korean GP, to find a completely different table. If you guys know of anywhere to get hold of full races then it’s something I would look into?

    • I guess you would have to look back at a race reports from two or three different sources and the lap charts for last year to get the data.

      You may find it easier tackle if you take it race by race, so that you look at Australia and Malaysia this week and next , and add the comparative “victims of circumstance” history of other circuits as the calendar progresses.

      I think the criteria, employed in the above table to “judge” whether or not a driver was a victim and to promote/demote them, are just fine.

      p.s. I could have used the words “for sure” somewhere in the previous sentence and added “there or thereabouts” for good measure. 😉

    • hmm, thats going to be your issue isn’t it really? needs to be a full look at a race with everyone included, which would be tough. Somebody out there is bound to have recorded them, but its getting it.

      I like the idea of BDPs delta, be nice to include a range of positions, like radiocrabon datings error range: (120 +/- 40 BC), for gaining or losing a place, but I suspect it could all get very messy.

      As it is, thanks for doing it, and any effort you put in is much appreciated, and entertaining reading!

      • Good contributions everyone – when Adam, John and I were discussing this weeks ago we realised that we may develop the parameters with input form everyone before we finalise the rules of the game….

        It will be pretty objective from a probability point of view – the extra-ordinary can never be legislated for.

  4. I think this is a great idea but of course to a large extent hypothetical as there is still a lot of presumptions being made . Therefore, I have one suggestion to make it a bit more ‘fact-based’: I think the chart should also include a column that gives the delta from the points that each driver would have gathered if everybody finished where they started, e.g. Vettel: – 10 (15-25), Webber: -12 (6-18), Hamilton: -5 (10-15), Massa: 0 (12-12), Alonso: + 8 (18-10), etc. Alternatively, you can also make an WDC points simulation on the basis of starting positions, I’m not sure which one would be easier to interpret.

  5. Any idea if there was a relation between Rosberg’s electrical issue and the ECU? Seems many teams were having trouble with theirs.

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