It is inarguable that Mercedes are not dominating the all-new F1 rules era in 2026, but it is not as bad as it was back in 2014, the last time we had an engine change of era. Despite Lewis Hamilton’s calls for Ferrari to change the way it operates in the vain hope he can reign in Kimi Antonelli’s lead, the Silver Arrows team are now all but mathematically out of reach in both championships.
Now 66 points ahead of his teammate and 76 ahead of his closest non-Mercedes rival in Hamilton, Kimi Antonelli has one hand on the drivers’ trophy, and this is despite Mercedes not having upgraded their engine yet.
Yet the picture is not as bad as it was some 12 years ago, where Mercedes dominance saw them finish 1-2 in more than half the Grands Prix. That year, only Daniel Ricciardo for Red Bull was able to win a Grand Prix as the Silver Arrows swept the board, with Hamilton besting his teammate Nico Rosberg to the championship.
Cost Caps and the ADUO Programme
One of the key differences has been the fact that the engine manufacturers have for 2026 an enforced cost cap, which didn’t exist in 2014. Back then, Mercedes were rumoured to have invested some $1bn in R&D on their all-conquering power unit.
The cap for existing manufacturers to develop their 2026 hybrid powertrains was set at $190m, although bizarrely for the new entrant Audi, this was capped at a reduced $148m—argued it would allow new suppliers to catch up.
This has clearly restricted the Mercedes advantage when compared to 2014, with four Grands Prix being won by two Ferrari drivers and Lando Norris for McLaren. In an attempt to ensure there was a catch-up mechanism which didn’t exist in 2014, the FIA introduced the Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO) programme to allow manufacturers whose units were down on power to catch up.
For some inexplicable reason, the FIA bowed to the demands made by the manufacturers to measure the relative power output from the combustion engine alone. Toto Wolff has even admitted Mercedes have the best overall powertrain, although when measured against Red Bull’s unit, it was found to have a deficit of more than 2%.
Strategic Upgrades and Power Unit Tactics
This will allow Mercedes HPP to bring one upgrade to their power unit this year, which is expected sometime between Azerbaijan and Singapore. Deemed more than 4% down on power compared to the Red Bull internal combustion engine, Ferrari have already brought their two power unit upgrades allowed for this season. The result of ADUO 2 was visible in Monza, where the Scuderia were impotent along the straights compared to the Mercedes-powered cars.
The paddock rumour mill suggests that, as a tactical decision to restrict Red Bull from gaining an ADUO token, Mercedes will bring their upgrade in the coming races, but it will not include any modifications to the internal combustion engine. This will leave Red Bull stranded as the nominal “best engine” holder, unable to modify significant issues they have with the hybrid aspect of their powertrain.
In Monza, Kimi Antonelli was forced to take an additional engine above the limit allowed by the FIA for the season. This meant he would start from the back of the grid. Yet notably, Mercedes didn’t introduce the full suite of components they could have, despite the fact that the penalty would not have been any worse.
Missing from Antonelli’s car were an upgraded turbo and MGU-K hybrid unit, together with no new exhaust components—which clearly suggests these will all be part of the ADUO upgrade potentially coming in Malaysia. With a cost cap in place, unnecessarily introducing these new components now would merely be a waste, but it does indicate they will be part of the coming powertrain upgrade.
With George Russell needing an additional engine beyond the FIA allowance, it is expected he will hold out until the upgrade comes. Antonelli will also receive the upgrade along with the Mercedes customer teams.
Under the regulations, Mercedes must provide their customers with at least one upgraded engine when they take theirs for Russell and Antonelli, meaning decisions will need to be made by McLaren, Alpine, and Williams as to which of their drivers benefits first.
Ferrari Left Trailing in the Dust
All this is seriously bad news for Ferrari, as in recent races McLaren have proven to already have the edge over their Italian rivals. Even following their ADUO 2 upgrade in Monza, Ferrari were way off the pace along the straights.
Lewis Hamilton admitted that despite the Ferrari upgrade, the difference between the Ferrari and Mercedes power units was shocking. “We knew that they were fast on the straight, but it was really mind-blowing just how quick they were on the straight,” he said. “Mercedes power, that thing just keeps pulling, pulling, pulling.”
Despite Hamilton calling on Ferrari to nominate him as the number one Ferrari driver in an attempt to overhaul Mercedes, the hope for 2026 appears forlorn. Even team boss Fred Vasseur believes their hopes of finding parity with Mercedes lie beyond the end of the season.
“We were not expecting to recover [with] ADUO 1 or ADUO 2,” he said in Monza. “We are doing small steps, but what you have to keep in mind is that… even if you make a couple of horsepower, it’s a good step on the grid. We have a new engine next year, and ADUO 1 in 2027, and ADUO 2. The target is to catch up, to catch up as soon as possible, but I was not expecting that in two months we will recover the delta with Mercedes.”
Hamilton’s first Grand Prix win at Round 7 in Barcelona offered a significant amount of hope that they could recover the deficit to Mercedes, but with McLaren coming to the fore in recent race weekends, it seems the die is cast for this year.
Lewis Hamilton can keep banging the drum over the pecking order within the Ferrari team, but any change in this manner would simply not make a jot of difference.
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The Judge, a nom de plume of an experienced F1 journalist and site founder with long-standing sources across the paddock. With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
A.J. Hunt is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Andrew oversees editorial standards and contributes to the site’s Formula 1 coverage. A career journalist with experience in both print and digital sports media, Andrew trained in investigative journalism and has written for a range of European sports outlets.
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