The war against the extremist Islamist regime in Iran broke out on February 28, 2026, following US and Israeli airstrikes targeting high-ranking Iranian officials. The hostilities quickly expanded across the region, heavily disrupting global supply chains, aviation, energy markets, and international sport.
Mercedes staff were trapped briefly in the region as they were about to perform a tyre test for F1’s official supplier Pirelli, and the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix were cancelled with immediate effect. Notably, the Sakhir circuit in Bahrain sits just 20 miles from a US military base that was targeted by Iranian drone and missile strikes.
Force Majeure and the Five-Week Spring Intermission
F1 decided not to attempt last-minute replacements for the cancelled events due to potential legal disputes over the hosting fees due, given the war is deemed a Force Majeure, and so a lengthy five-week gap before the Miami Grand Prix ensued.
There were hopes that one of these race weekends could be rescheduled for the autumn, but given the recent abandonment of the ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump, TJ13 has learned that F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali has now abandoned plans for this.
The Nuclear Standoff and the Threat to the Flyaways
All attention is now turning to the season finale in Abu Dhabi and the penultimate round scheduled to take place in Qatar. Given the history of the Islamist regime’s modus operandi to drag out talks aimed at resolving their nuclear ambitions—something which under US President Barack Obama took 18 months to negotiate—it seems highly unlikely F1 will be finishing the year at its regular Yas Marina venue.
Currently, the cancellation of the final two rounds of the 2026 season would leave Las Vegas as the final round of the year. Exploratory talks were underway to see if the race weekend in Sin City could be moved back to the Abu Dhabi date, but city officials were reluctant due to the immense reorganisation required.
Logistics and the Strait of Hormuz Threat Matrix
Tickets have been sold for the Qatar and Abu Dhabi events, but F1 must decide whether the situation in the Middle East will change significantly to allow the events to proceed as planned.
The sudden outbreak of hostilities between Iran and the US has proven that even a ceasefire is no guarantee hostilities will not re-emerge at a moment’s notice. Iran has found itself with the ability to control the narrative and hold the world hostage as they attack Western shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Surely a well-aimed missile landing at either the Yas Marina or Losail International circuits would deliver the kind of global headlines they crave. Stefano Domenicali initially suggested a final decision over the cancellation of the planned final two rounds of the season could be delayed as long as mid-September.
This timeline is so F1 can be seen to give the Middle Eastern venues every opportunity to fulfil their part of the contract. Yet the legalities of formally informing the Abu Dhabi And Qatari promoters of their legal position, TJ13 has been informed the decision has already been made.
The Iberian Contingency: Portimão and Barcelona Stand Ready
The Portimão circuit in Portugal is set to return to the F1 calendar next year having last hosted F1 during Covid. A source from within the race organisers has informed TJ13 that they have now been given the green light to begin the necessary planning to host a race this year which will replace the Abu Dhabi event scheduled for the 4–6th December 2026.
The mid-September deadline originally mooted is the moment when decisions must be enacted regarding logistics and shipping deadlines. Further, TJ13 understands that despite being dropped from the 2027 calendar and set to rotate biennially with Spa-Francorchamps, Barcelona is being readied for a second Grand Prix this season as a replacement for the Qatar event, which will be cancelled.
The $200 Lost Fees Crisis
Formula One must deliver at least 22 race weekends this season; otherwise, the contracts with broadcasting companies will be in breach. Along with the lost revenue from the hosting fees, which for Abu Dhabi and Qatar is not far below $100m, more than $100m more is at risk should the various global F1 broadcasters demand refunds.
There are those in the paddock who have previously questioned the wisdom of F1 becoming so heavily reliant on Middle Eastern money, which is disproportionate in its contribution when compared to other F1 venues.
And the problem is simple for Liberty Media, who receive almost 30% of their annual hosting fee revenue from just four race weekends in the Middle East. There is another issue for F1 to face, given the Qatar race weekend is a Sprint. Logically, this would mean a replacement race in Barcelona would follow the same format, despite the circuit not being a great venue for the shortened form of F1 races.
Looking Ahead to 2027: The Pre-Season Friction
Then, of course, given the historical length of Middle Eastern conflicts, questions are already being raised over the 2027 calendar. While the calendar is usually announced around the beginning of September, there are disputes between the FIA and FOM over when they should make decisions regarding pre-season testing in Bahrain and the early season races scheduled for Jeddah and Sakhir.
An Unexpected Solution: The Case for a New Delhi Return
Earlier this season, TJ13 reported that there had been a change of heart within the government of India regarding its taxation policies for F1 promoters. The Indian Grand Prix ran from 2011 to 2013 before the promoters pulled the plug due to excessive taxation they were required to pay on ticket sales.
There is now significant interest in bringing Formula 1 back to India, and the subject hit the headlines in the sub-continent when India’s Sports Minister, Mansukh Mandaviya, boldly claimed the government was pushing for a race at the Buddh International Circuit as early as 2027 or 2028, even planning a dedicated task force to sort out the logistics.
At the time, the notion was dismissed by F1’s CEO Stefano Domenicali, who suggested such an idea was at least five years away. Yet with the catastrophe that is the Middle East, and F1 now regionalising its flyaway races, an F1 return to New Delhi in place of Bahrain for 2027 makes perfect sense.
The Middle Eastern conflict will not be resolved anytime soon, and F1 is being forced to face up to the consequences of more than a couple of races being cancelled as the longer-term future of the schedule must be addressed.
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The Judge, a nom de plume of an experienced F1 journalist and site founder with long-standing sources across the paddock. With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
Only one of those two could be placed in the late-season phase because sea freight id used for the Las Vegas GP & truck transportation for European circuits, unless the replacement rounds were treated as flyaways with team kits being transported via sea rather than trucks, although Istanbul Park would still be more fitting.
On the other hand, unsurprising because the re-escalation & the high likelihood of things not getting solved anytime soon effectively mean that the Bahrain-Qatar-UAE trio is off the table due to their geographical locations & reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for sea freight logistics.
Saudi Arabia is in a more favorable position due to Jeddah’s geographical location compared to the other three Middle East GP locations & sea freight transportation via the Red Sea anyway, but apparently, even the Saudi Arabian round is off the table for the late-season phase.
Even though things will likely take enough time to even affect next season’s beginning, I doubt about Indian GP return prospects.
15 is actually the minimum for broadcasting fees, as was established in 2020 with all the COVID-induced cancellations, & the Qatar GP actually reverted to the still-standard format for this season.
Finally, even if no Middle East round takes place this season, FOM should still be guaranteed for the respective hosting fees, given the precedent set by Bahrain paying its hosting fee for the cancelled 2011 edition anyway.