Red Bull confident major RB22 upgrade can unlock five-tenth gain, says Marko – Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko believes the team can recover as much as five tenths of a second through upcoming development work, with a major RB22 upgrade package set to debut at the Austrian Grand Prix.
Sources within Red Bull who spoke to TJ13 after Marko’s latest comments also believe meaningful performance gains remain achievable under the current regulations, although they caution that the final outcome will depend on the correlation between simulator expectations and on-track results.
The Milton Keynes squad has spent much of the 2026 Formula 1 season chasing rivals Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren after beginning the campaign on the back foot. However, confidence appears to be growing that a combination of aerodynamic improvements and weight reduction could significantly improve the RB22’s competitiveness over the coming races.
Current regulations still offer substantial development opportunities
Since the Miami Grand Prix, several teams have made notable gains through major upgrade packages, highlighting that the current generation of Formula 1 cars still contains considerable untapped potential.
Both Mercedes technical director James Allison and McLaren team principal Andrea Stella have recently suggested that teams can still unlock sizeable lap-time improvements through effective development programmes, provided factory simulations accurately reflect real-world performance.
That view appears to be shared inside Red Bull.
Sources close to the team indicated to TJ13 that Marko’s assessment is not viewed as unrealistic internally, with engineers believing there is still significant performance available through ongoing development work as the regulations approach their final season before the 2027 rules reset.
Marko identifies five-tenth target for Red Bull recovery
Speaking to Austrian newspaper Kleine Zeitung, Marko suggested Red Bull’s current deficit remains recoverable through planned upgrades.
“Mercedes is the favorite, but the rest of the field is more than interesting.”
“At this stage of the regulation, the updates are certainly more effective; you can gain five tenths in one go.”
While five tenths of a second represents a substantial gain in modern Formula 1, the current phase of the regulations has seen several teams make dramatic improvements following successful upgrade introductions.
For Red Bull, much of that gain is expected to come from reducing the RB22’s weight while continuing aerodynamic development that began earlier in the season.
RB22 set to reach minimum weight limit for first time
One of the most significant milestones for Red Bull could arrive this weekend in Austria.
According to Marko, the RB22 is expected to run at the FIA minimum weight limit for the first time this season, potentially unlocking valuable lap-time gains.
The team has gradually chipped away at excess weight throughout the campaign after starting the year heavier than several direct rivals. In Formula 1, weight reduction remains one of the most effective performance tools, with estimates often placing the benefit at several tenths of a second depending on circuit characteristics.
The Red Bull Ring could prove an ideal venue to showcase those improvements thanks to its heavy traction zones and rapid acceleration demands.
Austrian Grand Prix could provide crucial indicator
Austria will offer the first real opportunity to assess whether Red Bull’s recovery plans are working.
The circuit’s combination of short lap times and multiple acceleration zones should provide a clear picture of any gains achieved through weight reduction and aerodynamic updates.
Marko remains optimistic that the changes will move Max Verstappen closer to the front of the field.
“For the first time, Red Bull will field a car at the weight limit and we will certainly be in the fight. I hope Max runs in the lead.”
With Mercedes continuing to set the benchmark and Ferrari and McLaren also showing strong pace, the Austrian Grand Prix could become a pivotal moment in determining whether Red Bull can rejoin the battle for victories during the second half of the 2026 season.
Why this matters
Red Bull’s ability to unlock the predicted performance gains could have major implications for both the Constructors’ Championship and Verstappen’s hopes of challenging for race wins. 2025 is a great example where the Red Bull car seemed way off the pace, yet became a title contender suddenly after performance upgrades came online toward the summer break.
If Marko’s forecast proves accurate, the competitive order behind Mercedes could tighten considerably over the coming rounds, creating one of the closest development battles of the current regulation cycle.
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The Judge, a nom de plume of an experienced F1 journalist and site founder with long-standing sources across the paddock. With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
