Insider reveals how the paddock sees the balance of power – Although there have been no dramatic headline moments during the week-long Formula 1 shakedown in Barcelona, patterns are beginning to emerge beneath the surface. Although lap times and fuel loads are still being kept secret, there is an increasingly consistent mood in the paddock: Mercedes appears to have started the 2026 season with a strong lead.
However, whether that perception reflects reality is still very much up for debate. Interestingly, Mercedes itself is the team most reluctant to embrace the ‘favourite’ label.
Mercedes impresses with mileage and consistency
From a statistical standpoint, Mercedes stood out during the Barcelona test. George Russell and rookie Kimi Antonelli completed a combined total of 504 laps, more than any other driver pairing over the course of the week. This suggests a smooth and productive programme with minimal technical disruptions.
Ferrari ranked second in overall mileage with 438 laps, but that still left the Italian team over a full race distance behind the Silver Arrows. Mercedes also demonstrated their speed, with Russell and Antonelli achieving P2 and P5 respectively during representative runs.
While lap counts and headline times never tell the full story in testing, reliability and the ability to run through planned programmes are highly valued at this stage of the season.
Are the numbers really meaningful?
Despite the impressive-looking data, opinions vary on how much weight should be placed on these early indicators. According to Sky Sports insider Craig Slater, Mercedes is actively downplaying its apparent advantage.
Speaking about conversations within the team, Slater explained that Toto Wolff and other senior figures at Mercedes are uncomfortable with being cast as early favourites. The team believes that the competitive landscape is far tighter than external analysis suggests.
“They don’t like this status and deny that they are currently in the lead,” Slater revealed.
“As they see it, and I spoke to someone in charge about it, it’s very close between the big four from last year.”
From Mercedes’ perspective, McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari are all considered to be operating within a narrow performance window, with no clear leader having emerged yet.
READ MORE: Mercedes lead the way in F1 testing – or do they?
Rival Teams See Mercedes Slightly Ahead
While Mercedes is being cautious, rival teams appear to be drawing a different conclusion from the same data. Slater noted that, when speaking to competitors, there is a subtle but noticeable shift in the consensus in Mercedes’ favour.
“If you talk to the other three teams, they see Mercedes slightly ahead,” he said.
“I spoke to someone from McLaren. They don’t necessarily believe this will be the case permanently or for the entire season, but based on this test, Mercedes are slightly ahead.”
That distinction is important. Even among their rivals, there is no suggestion that Mercedes has a dominant advantage. Instead, the general feeling is that the Silver Arrows performed better in the opening tests than their closest rivals.
Bahrain tests could clarify the picture
The true competitive order is unlikely to be determined by a single shakedown. Two further test sessions are scheduled in Bahrain in February, when teams typically begin to reveal more about their true performance levels.
If Mercedes continues to lead the mileage charts and demonstrate strong race simulation pace in Bahrain, the narrative could shift decisively in their favour. Conversely, if their rivals close the gap or demonstrate additional performance, the early Barcelona advantage may quickly be seen as circumstantial.
Either way, the upcoming tests could provide the first meaningful indication of what fans can expect when the season begins in Melbourne.
For now, Mercedes is in an intriguing position: widely viewed by the paddock as being slightly ahead, yet publicly and internally rejecting the role of frontrunner. Whether that caution proves justified or merely strategic should become clearer long before the first race of the season begins.
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NEXT ARTICLE – Leclerc now a convert after initial negativity about F1 2026
Having driven Ferrari’s first effort at a virtual 2026 car in the simulator last July, Charles Leclerc looked like a man who’d seen a ghost when he reported the experience. “Let’s say it’s not the most enjoyable race car I’ve driven so far but we are still in a moment where the project is relatively new,” he said.
“My hope relies in the fact that it will evolve quite a bit in the next few months but it’s no secret that I think the regulations for next year is going to be a lot more … probably less enjoyable for drivers to drive. So yeah, I’m not a big fan of it for now but it’s the way it is and at the end of the day I think there’s a challenge and I would like the challenge of maximising a very different car to what it is at the moment. But will I enjoy it? Probably not.”
Hardly a ringing endorsement for what has been years of debate and procrastinating over the look and feel of the all new Formula One cars and their powertrains. And Leclerc was not alone in his criticism of the new F1 era as Lance Stroll opined after a session in the Aston Martin simulator.
New F1 era “a science project”
“It’s just a bit of a shame we’re just – Formula 1’s just – taking that path of electric energy and we’ve had to shed all the downforce off the cars to support the battery power,” he said. “It should be fun to see some light, nimble, fast cars with a lot of downforce and just simplify the whole thing a little bit. Less so of an energy, battery, championship, science project and more of just a Formula 1 racing championship.”
Stroll went on to reveal a number of other drivers felt the same, but were being gagged by their teams for “political reasons.” Now as the Barcelona test that wasn’t a test – it was a shakedown – draws to a conclusion, all the drivers have had a chance to experience not a ghost car on a screen but the real thing.
Immediately striking has been the conversion of Charles Leclerc who believed that 2026 would be “less enjoyable.” Having completed a mammoth 89 laps in the dry on Thursday, the Monegasque driver has shed is expectation of mere technical driving experience having felt the physical and intellectual demands required to get the best…CONTINUE READING THIS STORY
Alex Stanton is a Formula 1 journalist at TJ13 with a focus on the financial and commercial dynamics that underpin the sport. Alex contributes reporting and analysis on team ownership structures, sponsorship trends, and the evolving business model of Formula 1.
At TJ13, Alex covers topics including manufacturer investment, cost cap implications, and the strategic direction of teams navigating an increasingly complex financial environment. Alex’s work often examines how commercial decisions translate into on-track performance and long-term competitiveness.
With a strong interest in the intersection of sport and business, Alex provides context around Formula 1’s global growth, including media rights, expansion markets, and manufacturer influence.
Alex’s reporting aims to explain the financial realities behind headline stories, helping readers understand how money, governance, and strategy shape the competitive order in Formula 1.
