The Formula 1 paddock is still full of speculation about Max Verstappen’s long-term future at Red Bull Racing. Now, one of the most outspoken former Formula 1 drivers has joined the debate. Juan Pablo Montoya, never one to shy away from a controversial opinion, has questioned Mercedes’ contract tactics and openly encouraged the reigning world champion to consider joining the Silver Arrows.
With George Russell’s contract due to expire at the end of the season, Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has yet to confirm a renewal for the Briton. This delay has not gone unnoticed. Speaking to CasinoHawks, 2005 British Grand Prix winner Montoya believes there’s a reason for the pause – and it may have everything to do with Verstappen.
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“George Russell is in the fight. He’s close to the top guys, so it makes you wonder – why hasn’t he re-signed already?” Montoya asked. “What is Mercedes waiting for?”
This question echoes comments recently made by 2016 world champion Nico Rosberg, who suggested that the German-British team might be hedging their bets in case Verstappen leaves Red Bull.
With the Dutchman’s 2025 campaign growing increasingly tense both on and off the track, many believe a shock move could be on the cards.
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Montoya went on to consider the difficult choices that Mercedes might have to make if Verstappen became available. Would they really replace Russell, who has consistently matched or even outperformed Lewis Hamilton over the past two seasons? Or could they risk letting go of teenage prodigy Kimi Antonelli, whom many in the Mercedes camp see as the next superstar?
“If you sign Max, who do you let go – George or Kimi?” Montoya asked pointedly. ‘That’s a hell of a decision to make.”
The question for Mercedes is not only who to partner with Verstappen, but also whether the team can build a car around him that will be ready to compete for titles again by 2026, when sweeping new power unit regulations come into effect.
Montoya: If I were Max, I’d pick Mercedes
As for Verstappen himself, Montoya made it crystal clear what he would do if he were in the Dutchman’s shoes.
“If I were Max and thinking about 2026 and 2027, I’d want to be at Mercedes,” he said. “If I could choose freely, that’s where I’d go.”
This view is based on more than just sentiment. With Red Bull potentially entering a transitional phase as it prepares for its in-house Ford-powered engines from 2026 and Mercedes showing signs of promising recovery in 2025, the balance of power in Formula 1 could shift dramatically once again. Montoya believes Verstappen would be wise to position himself accordingly.
However, he also mentioned another name: Aston Martin.
“If he’s not considering a move until 2030, then Aston Martin might be the right place,” he added, referencing the team’s strong upward trajectory and substantial backing from Lawrence Stroll and Aramco. Nevertheless, Montoya isn’t convinced that Aston will be able to deliver what Verstappen needs before the end of the decade.
Verstappen’s contract: myth vs. reality
The real question, Montoya argues, is not just about Verstappen’s desires, but also about what is actually possible under the terms of his contract. While reports have long circulated that the Dutchman has exit clauses tied to Helmut Marko’s presence or performance benchmarks, Montoya is sceptical about just how easy it would be to walk away.
‘The big question is what Max’s contract really says,” Montoya pointed out.
“I don’t think Max can just get out of it so easily, not with the way he’s driving right now.”
The Colombian added that he doubts Verstappen would have agreed to a deal that allows him to leave on a whim, especially given the public stance taken by both the driver and Red Bull management about their ‘long-term commitment’.
“He probably can’t leave whenever he wants. Not unless something dramatic happens,” Montoya stated. ‘That contract probably locks him in more than people realise.”
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With Verstappen currently just one penalty point away from a race ban, and with Red Bull still reeling from internal tensions between Christian Horner and senior figures such as Helmut Marko, the issue is no longer just about competitive performance – it’s also about team culture and long-term stability.
The reigning world champion, who has already won the title four times, has repeatedly said that he doesn’t want to spend his life in F1 if it’s no longer enjoyable. Recent weekends have also shown signs of strain, with McLaren closing in on Red Bull’s once-untouchable dominance.
There’s also the lingering factor of the 2026 regulation overhaul. If Red Bull’s Ford engine project struggles to match the likes of Mercedes, Ferrari or Audi, Verstappen could quickly find himself in the wrong car at the wrong time – precisely the situation he has been keen to avoid since his early years in underperforming Toro Rossos and inconsistent Red Bulls.
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A Game of Chess, Not Poker
Montoya’s assessment is that the current Verstappen saga is not a game of poker, with hidden cards and bluffs, but rather a high-stakes game of chess where every move must be calculated years in advance.
Mercedes may be waiting for just the right moment to make their move. Meanwhile, Verstappen appears to be considering whether Red Bull is still the right team for him. And, despite all the speculation, one thing remains certain: no one in the paddock is making decisions in isolation.
As Montoya puts it: “If you’re Max Verstappen, you can’t just think about this season. You think about who’s going to give you the best car next, and the one after that.”
Right now, Mercedes may be the answer. But, as is always the case in Formula 1, the truth behind the scenes will probably remain hidden until it suddenly becomes apparent.
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The Judge, a nom de plume of an experienced F1 journalist and site founder with long-standing sources across the paddock. With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
