In 2024, McLaren won their first constructors’ title since 1998 in the days when Mika Hakkinen and David Coulthard were racing. And despite Lando Norris’ assessment that the drivers title was never really close a number of mis steps by the second oldest F1 team contributed to a final deficit to Max of 64 points.
The pesky Ferrari team too showed weekends of pure genius, which prevented Norris from racking up more points than he did and even Mercedes were dominant on occasions as in Spa-Francorchamp and Las Vegas.
Yet should McLaren and Norris push in 20205 to claim both team and driver titles, they are likely to continue their in season development for longer than their closest rivals. This could hurt the team’s hopes for sustained success as Formula One enters a whole new era with a new set of design regulations.
Russell warns of too long in development
“Whoever continues to develop will probably win the championship, but you’ll pay the price in 2026,” said Mercedes driver George Russell this week. F1 championships do come down to who best develops and refines their car throughout the season, something McLaren proved last year. Of course Mercedes have after testing not been tipped for the title in 2025.
McLaren were 115 points behind Red Bull after six rounds in 2024, yet their big upgrade which came in Miami was to catapult them to effect a 192 point turnaround on the world champions during the course of the year. At the sale important mid-point of the year, Red Bull remained ahead of the field with Ferrari just seven points ahead of McLaren.
It was then when the next six months of aerodynamic handicap allowances were calculated, giving Red Bull the least amount of wind tunnel and CFD time, whilst McLaren had almost 15% more aero testing allowed than Red Bull. Come the end of the year, the roles were reversed with Red bull in third place and having same advantage McLaren once had.
This year the aero testing time will be split between the current car and its in season development and the research and development required for the biggest set of rule changes in living memory coming in 2026. A team which believes it isn’t going to improve significantly this year, will quickly abandon improving their 2025 car and throw their resources behind the one for next season.
McLaren now the off track bitter Red Bull rivals
F1 teams handicapped on aero testing
With less aerodynamics testing time than Red Bull Racing, who last time came out on top when the car design rules were thrown up in the air; McLaren will be walking a tightrope which stretches between the goals of winning again this year and coming out ahead of the field in 2026.
The team which aces the new 2026 design regulations could well remain on top of the pile for a number of years. This was how Mercedes claimed a record breaking eight consecutive team championships and seven drivers’ titles between 2014-2021.
Any head start next year may offer big gains for year’s to come and Christian Horner as promised, “it’s going to be a very, very busy year for us,” as the team bid for a fifth consecutive title for Verstappen. Meanwhile behind the scenes the work on their 2026 engine in partnership with Ford will require a huge amount of attention as Red Bull are attempting the previously impossible.
Now F1 team who isn’t and OEM (engine manufacturer) has ever set up its own power unit facility to compete at the front of the F1 grid. As far as resource allocation is concerned under the FIA’s cost cap regime, the Red Bull boss states, “it’s the same money for everybody, but you will apply your resource accordingly,” noted Christian Horner.
Teams will gamble on early 2026 focus
Red Bull brought to an end the Mercedes dominance of Formula One with their 2022 ground effect car which aced the new aerodynamics better than the rest. At the time Mercedes launched a visually impressive racing machine, but its performance has been woeful with the team winning just five Grand Prix in three years, while Red Bull have won 47.
As far as the aerodynamic handicapping system is concerned, Horner revealed there was a silver lining to coming just third in the constructors’ race last year. “Particularly in a regulation change, that’s always going to be quite useful,” Horner said.
A number of teams have little to lose from gambling their resources on 2026, in particular Sauber-Audi whose car once again looks to be back of there field material. F1 is billing itself with the hype that this could be the closest ever year in F1 history, yet the reality is likely to be much different.
Williams driver Alex Albon says his team have learned from the mega success of Red Bull since 2022 and this is why he is already trying out ideas for 2026. “It’s taken until now for teams to catch up, finally. It just shows you the importance of getting a head start at the very beginning, and I think that’s why you’re going to see this awkward year,” Albon said.
Honda on the back foot with 2026 engine
Williams already testing 2026 parts
“In the simulator, what we’re doing, there’s already a focus into next year. It seems crazy to say it when we haven’t even turned a wheel yet in this year’s competition.”
Aston Martin have signed the greatest ever F1 car designing in Adrian Newey, with his stated focus to be on the car for 2026. Yet the Aston Martin appeared to be in trouble during pre-season testing which led Fernando Loans to suggests, “Adrian is going to be a free spirit, you can’t tell him what to do,” the Spaniard told his national press represented at the F175 launch.
“The day he arrives, if he can give us a hand in 2025, fine. If he wants to work only in 2026, fine too,” suggested Alonso.
Red Bull may be playing the long game for 2026, but as Horner rightly says they have a ‘historic’ fifth consecutive title in front of their star driver. Both Red Bull and McLaren are therefore the most likely to push for the titles this season, whilst Ferrari and Mercedes may prefer to line their nests for 2026.
Steiner insight into Horner hatred
Red Bull to play the long game in 2025
Pre-season Formula One testing gives no definitive answers as to which team has done the best job over the winter in designer their new car. McLaren appear to be most peoples favourites although they have taken a similar route as did Red Bull between 2023/24.
Red Bull keen not to allow the rest of the field to close the gap following their record breaking 2023, decided to make significant changes for their 2024 RB20. One of the bis evolutions from the RB19 was the repositioning of the internal cooling systems which had huge implications for the arrangement of the rest of the components around it.
And across the first ten Grand Prix weekends last season, Red Bull looked strong, with Max Verstappen winning seven of the ten GP’s and losing only in Australia when brake failures forced him to retire from the lead…. READ MORE
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
