2025 F1 Mercedes driver contract intrigue

Formula One’s ‘silly season’ – which describes the time of year when teams and drivers are looking for new futures together – traditionally kicked off as soon as the bell rang and school was out for the summer break.

This was epitomised in 2022, when at the final race weekend in Hungary before heading off into the European sunshine, Sebastian Vettel announced his shock retirement from the sport. “I hereby announce my retirement from Formula 1 by the end of the 2022 season,” read the beginning of his social media post.

Just four days later as the teams headed back to base on the Monday, Fernando Alonso made his own dramatic revelation as he announced he would be leaving Alpine to replace his fellow world champion at the Silverstone based Aston Martin team.

 

 

 

Recent silly seasons like climate change

This became the start of the silly season that year, which resulted just days after Alonso’s announcement when Alpine declared they were promoting their academy driver Oscar Piastri. The Aussie was quick to respond and in just ninety minutes he astonishingly refuted the teams claim he would be stepping up into F1 with the French owned team.

The rest is history. A short legal wrangle led to Alpine conceding their legal department had failed to nail down Piastri’s contract and Oscar was free to don his papaya liveried overalls just a few months later.

The following year the silly season experienced a climate change, when compared with the previous year’s excitement. Every driver who raced in the final round in Abu Dhabi 2022, was retained by the same teams for round one the following year. This was a first in F1 history but was not great for the F1 writers content as the season drew to a close and over the winter.

However, what 2023 failed to deliver in terms of excitement over drivers switching teams was blasted to smithereens come January 2024, as Lewis Hamilton with his new ‘mulit-year’ Mercedes contract signed just weeks earlier, announced this would be his final year with the Mercedes team which has brought him nearly all of his success in F1.

Red Bull junior to ‘upset the mix’

 

 

 

Wolff mercilessly pursues Verstappen

With Hamilton off to Maranello, this sparked a version of the children’s picture book search, but now entitled, “Where’s Carlos going?” His decision to join the independent Williams team and shun works outfits owned by Renault and Audi said it all about his belief of their readiness to move up the grid.

Yet the Hamilton departure left team boss Toto Wolff with a conundrum. And Wolff opted for what he described as a “bold move” by replacing Hamilton with their academy driver Kimi Antonelli.

The Italian has been described as the next Max Verstappen and given Wolff had missed the opportunity to sign Max as a junior – who then promptly joined Red Bull following hi Mercedes’ rejection – it was a no brainer that the Austrian boss wold fear repeating the same mistake twice.

Yet despite the confidence in Antonelli, Wolff pursued Max Verstappen around the paddock like a lap dog at times. He offered to make a home in Brockley for Max’s mentor Dr. Helmut Marko, joking he could fill the boots of his fellow countryman the late Niki Lauda. Wolff boasted about how Mercedes came to dominate the last change of power unit back in 2014, suggesting publicly the same cold happen for 2026.

Hamilton’s clever politics day 1 in Maranello

 

 

 

Red Bull steadied the ship

Then came Brazil, and with Verstappen now winless in ten grand Prix weekend outings, the pressure was on as Lando Norris was closing his lead in the title race down quickly. And in his underperforming RB20, Verstappen put on a masterclass the current generation of fans has never seen as he carved through the field to win by 20 seconds, having started P17.

The reality is Red Bull had an off year, but with Adrian Newey announcing that he was leaving the team, question marks have arisen over the capabilities of the future Red Bull cars and in a handful of weeks, we’ll all know the answer as to how fundamental Dewey was to Red Bull F1 team in his final years at Milton Keynes.

However, the Wolff Houndog pursuit of Verstappen raises some interring questions for Mercedes going forward. They will blood Antonelli this year alongside George Russel now with six years under his belt in F1. Russell also hammered Lewis Hamilton in their three years together in all metrics except total points scored.

Yet should Red Bull under deliver this season and worse of all there be rumours of problems with their first in house power unit coming in 2026, Wolff and Mercedes will again be courting the services of the four times world champion. But what does this mean for Russell and Antonelli?

Newey threatens 2026 F1 dominance

 

 

 

Mercedes contract conundrum greater this year

Regardless of how Toto is presenting George and Kimi as the new Mercedes ‘family’, should Verstappen become a free agent and seek a move to Brackley, one of them has to go.

Of course it was normal for Mercedes to chase Verstappen last season given they had an unexpected vacancy, but with two drivers in situe does this change the dynamic? Bo team in their right mind would not make way for the Dutch champion and so which of the Mercedes pair wold have to give way?

Should Antonelli not take Formula One with by storm then Mercedes decision is simple. Put him with a smaller team, as they did with Russel for three years, and make way for Max.

But should Antonelli tear it up in 2024, Mercedes decision becomes more difficult. Suddenly the debate will become about whether Russell has got what it takes and again Max for George is a no brain of a swap.

The reality of an imminent Verstappen race ban

 

 

 

Russell a free agent

Yet Mercedes after three years of woe will not have the driver market at their beck and call as was the case in the 2010’s Russell in well under par Mercedes car has proven ton be potentially the best of all his generation, with Lando Norris maybe the exception.

Veteran F1 writer John Noble observes: “Would Red Bull even swoop for him [Russell] if it felt that it was going to lose Verstappen, as he is potentially the best race-winning prospect available if it needed someone suitable to slot in?”

George Russell is out of contract at the end of this season and with the departure of Hamilton it would not have been surprising had Mercedes nailed him down for another year whilst Antonelli beds in. But they have not as yet. Even Mercedes are watching and waiting before making their next big commitment to a driver, that said Russell could be snapped up for 2026, ironically by Red Bull should their juniors fail to make the grade. The 2025 silly season really begins when the cars hit the pre-season testing sessions in Bahrain come February.

British reporter admits F1 ‘story telling bias’

 

 

 

 

Winter F1 nonsense stories debunked (part F1)

There’s only one time of year worse than the summer break in Formula One, and its winter. This year the break between the final Abu Dhabi test and the first car 2025 launch planned by the Williams team will be 73 days. When compared to the previous season this long cold winter in Europe is actually two weeks shorter than last year.

Of course at the end of a long hard season which ended with a crushing two sets of triple head weekends, the F1 teams’ race crew personnel in particular are exhausted and need time to recharge the batteries.

Back at HQ, the winter is the time for the techies and engineers to shine, as they hit their marks in the dash to complete their racing prototypes to challenge for the coming campaign… READ MORE

The Judge 13 bio pic
+ posts

The Judge, a nom de plume of an experienced F1 journalist and site founder with long-standing sources across the paddock. With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Discover more from TheJudge13

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading