Liam Lawson, the most likely replacement for Australian Daniel Ricciardo produced interesting lap times compared to George Russell at the Pirelli tyre test – The 2024 Formula 1 season has been marked by seismic shifts in the driver market, sparking intense speculation about the future of key players in the sport.
With two seats remaining on the 2025 grid, Liam Lawson has emerged as a prominent contender, and any opportunity for him to drive an F1 car will be crucial in deciding his future. His recent performance during a Pirelli tyre test, testing the Red Bull RB20 against George Russell’s Mercedes, has drawn attention to his prospects. As Lawson’s future in F1 looks increasingly secure, the landscape of the sport continues to change.

The driver market explosion: Hamilton’s move and its implications
The F1 driver market for 2024 exploded earlier than expected when Lewis Hamilton made the bombshell announcement that he was leaving Mercedes to join Ferrari.
The seven-time world champion’s decision to switch teams sent shockwaves through the paddock, with many expecting a domino effect to follow. Hamilton’s departure from Mercedes left a huge void, with the futures of several drivers thrown into question. Many believed the shake-up would trigger a flurry of moves, but the expected wave of change took longer to materialise.
One of the central figures in the drama was Carlos Sainz, whose contract situation became the focus of speculation. With Hamilton’s move to Ferrari, Sainz’s future with the team was uncertain, as Ferrari were unlikely to retain both Hamilton and Sainz alongside Charles Leclerc. Several teams, including Audi and Renault (Alpine), expressed an interest in securing Sainz’s services, offering him roles with factory-backed outfits.
However, in a surprising turn of events, Sainz rejected both Audi and Renault, opting instead to sign for Williams. Despite being an independent team with fewer resources than its rivals, Sainz was won over by Williams Team Principal James Vowles’ vision for the rapid development of the team.
Sainz’s move to Williams was a gamble, but one he believed would pay off in the long run, proving that the F1 driver market remains as unpredictable as ever.
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Lawson’s tyre test vs. Russell: A tale of two futures
While Carlos Sainz was making his move to Williams, Liam Lawson was busy seizing his own opportunities. The young New Zealander took part in a Pirelli tyre test, driving Red Bull’s RB20 at Monza alongside Mercedes driver George Russell. While test sessions often offer limited insights due to the variability of car set-ups, tyre conditions and fuel loads, the comparison between Lawson and Russell provided a fascinating insight into the Kiwi’s potential.
Russell, an experienced driver with a Mercedes seat secured for the foreseeable future, set the benchmark during the test with a 1Ž20.747 lap on the soft compound tyre. By comparison, Lawson’s best time of 1:22.126 was almost 1.5 seconds slower than his rival.
While this gap may seem significant on paper, it’s important to remember that Lawson is still relatively new to F1 machinery and the test environment can be misleading.
Lawson completed 104 laps during the session, gathering valuable data for Pirelli as well as furthering his own development as a driver. With another day of testing scheduled, there is plenty of opportunity for him to improve. Regardless of the raw times, Lawson’s participation in such tests underlines Red Bull’s confidence in his abilities.
Whether his future lies with Red Bull Racing, AlphaTauri or another team, Lawson’s development will be closely watched by the F1 community.
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Perez on the brink: Can he keep his Red Bull seat?
While Lawson is gaining valuable experience, Sergio “Checo” Perez is under increasing pressure. Perez started the 2024 season on a strong note, taking four podiums in the first five races. Since then, however, his form has nosedived, with no podium finishes in the following 11 rounds. This steep decline has put his future at Red Bull in doubt, with several riders, including Lawson, being touted as potential replacements.
Perez’s average finish over the last 15 races is four places behind his dominant teammate Max Verstappen. The gap is even more pronounced in qualifying, with Perez often starting six places behind the reigning world champion.
Red Bull, who started the season with a 99-point lead in the Constructors’ Championship, have seen their advantage reduced to single figures. Of the top four teams, Perez is the weakest in comparison to his team-mate.
Despite widespread rumours that Perez’s time at Red Bull was running out, a mid-season review led by Christian Horner and Helmut Marko confirmed that the Mexican would retain his seat for the remainder of the year. However, the message was clear: Perez’s position beyond 2024 is not guaranteed unless his results improve dramatically.
Daniel Ricciardo, who returned to Red Bull as a reserve driver and filled in briefly at AlphaTauri following Lawson’s injury, remains on standby should Red Bull decide to make a change.
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Ricciardo’s uncertain future: A Red Bull conundrum
Ricciardo’s own future adds another layer of complexity to the Red Bull driver situation. Once considered one of the most talented drivers on the grid, the Australian has struggled in recent years. After leaving Red Bull in 2018, Ricciardo’s stints at Renault and McLaren were less successful than expected, leading to his return to Red Bull in a reserve role.
While Ricciardo has proven himself in the past, his ability to return to top form remains in question.
Helmut Marko, Red Bull’s motorsport advisor, has expressed reservations about whether Ricciardo still has the speed and consistency to compete at the highest level. With Lawson waiting in the wings, Marko is reportedly lobbying for the young Kiwi to be given a full-time seat in 2025. That leaves Ricciardo in a precarious position: if Perez’s form doesn’t improve, Red Bull could promote Lawson to the main team, leaving Ricciardo without a drive.
As it stands, Ricciardo’s only other potential option could be with Sauber/Audi, who are still weighing up their driver choices for the 2025 season.
The German manufacturer is preparing to take over the Sauber team in 2026 and is considering whether to prioritise experienced drivers like Ricciardo or invest in younger talent for the long term. Audi’s decision is likely to have a ripple effect throughout the driver market.
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The wider implications of Audi’s entry and Sainz’s gamble
Audi’s impending entry into F1 as a full works team in 2026 has added further intrigue to the 2024 driver market. While taking over Sauber, Audi has been linked with several drivers, including young F2 talent Gabriel Bortoleto and experienced racers such as Nico Hülkenberg. Audi’s strategy – whether to bring in experienced drivers or focus on developing younger talent – remains uncertain.
Carlos Sainz’s decision to reject Audi’s offer and instead sign with Williams shows that F1 drivers are increasingly looking beyond immediate success and focusing on long-term potential. Sainz’s gamble to join an independent team like Williams, with a clear plan for growth under James Vowles, could signal a shift in the way drivers approach their careers.
Traditionally seen as a backmarker in recent years, Williams could be on the cusp of a resurgence and Sainz’s commitment to the team could prove to be a masterstroke.
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Lawson’s future in F1: What’s next?
As the dust begins to settle on the 2024 driver market, Liam Lawson’s prospects for 2025 look increasingly promising. His recent tyre test, coupled with growing rumours of his promotion to a full-time seat, suggest that Red Bull see Lawson as a key part of their future. With Perez under pressure and Ricciardo’s future uncertain, the young Kiwi could find himself in a prime position to secure one of the most coveted seats in F1.
Lawson’s rise through the ranks, combined with strong performances in testing and races, has cemented his reputation as one of the sport’s brightest talents. Whether he ends up at Red Bull, AlphaTauri or another team such as Sauber/Audi, Lawson’s potential is undeniable.
As Formula One heads into the 2025 season, all eyes will be on the young New Zealander to see just how far he can go.
In a sport as unpredictable as Formula One, Liam Lawson’s journey to the grid is just beginning, and the twists and turns that lie ahead will shape not only his career, but the future of the sport.
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With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.

