The Mercedes Formula 1 team have made no secret of their interest in securing the services of reigning world champion Max Verstappen. The Dutchman, who is currently going through a turbulent time at Red Bull Racing, has become the subject of intense speculation over a possible move to Mercedes in 2025.
Adding fuel to the fire, former F1 driver and current TV pundit Nico Rosberg has made comments suggesting a move could be imminent.
Why Verstappen to Mercedes in 2025 is starting to make more sense
A number of factors suggest that a move to Mercedes for Max Verstappen as early as 2025 is no longer a remote possibility.
Despite Toto Wolff’s charm offensive to soften the blow of Lewis Hamilton’s potential move to Ferrari, Verstappen and Red Bull seemed a certainty heading into the final year of the current regulations. However, recent developments have reduced the chances of what could be the biggest bombshell in the history of the drivers’ market, possibly even surpassing Hamilton’s move to Ferrari.
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Internal strife at Red Bull
The first major signs of discord within the Verstappen-Red Bull alliance emerged at the season-opener in Bahrain. A civil war erupted following the conclusion of an internal investigation into team principal Christian Horner and allegations of improper conduct.
Horner, backed by the Thai majority shareholders, found himself in a power struggle with Max Verstappen’s father, Jos Verstappen, along with Helmut Marko and Oliver Mintzlaff. Caught in the crossfire, Max hinted that his future could be in jeopardy if Marko, his long-time backer, was forced out of the team.
This power struggle has created an atmosphere of uncertainty and mistrust within Red Bull. While Horner has denied the allegations against him, the internal tensions have not completely subsided. Verstappen’s comments after the Saudi Grand Prix, suggesting that his future could be affected by Marko’s position within the team, only added to the speculation.
The dynamics within Red Bull are clearly complex and could potentially influence Verstappen’s decision-making process.
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Dominance and decline
Initially, it seemed that Red Bull’s internal conflicts could be managed, especially given the team’s dominant position. Verstappen was expected to cruise to the 2024 title and possibly the 2025 championship, given Red Bull’s performance advantage in 2023.
However, that dominance began to wane, most notably at the Austrian GP, where Verstappen’s lead, despite seven wins from ten races, was challenged by McLaren’s rising form and Mercedes’ resurgence.
The idea that winning races and championships can mask deep-seated problems is nothing new in F1. Red Bull’s expected dominance was seen as a buffer against internal strife. But the downturn in performance has exposed vulnerabilities that could influence Verstappen’s decision. The changing competitive landscape, with McLaren and Mercedes closing the gap, presents a new challenge for Red Bull and undermines their previously unassailable position.
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The Red Bull car conundrum
The 2023 RB19 car was a remarkable achievement, pushing the boundaries of current technical regulations. But it was also the product of a perfect storm, capitalising on its rivals’ struggles with car design and upgrades. As the field converged, the RB19’s advantage began to dwindle.
A failed upgrade introduced at Imola marked a significant turning point, with voices within the team, including Marko, calling for further development just to stay competitive.
With Red Bull having reached the development ceiling of their car, the challenge now is to squeeze out more performance. However, the team is constrained by the Aerodynamic Testing Restrictions (ATR) and the cost cap, which limit their ability to make fundamental changes. In contrast, rivals such as McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari have more adaptable design philosophies that allow them to keep improving.
Red Bull’s dilemma is compounded by the technical limitations of their current car philosophy. The rigid suspension setup pioneered by Adrian Newey provided a stable aerodynamic platform but struggled on bumpy, curvy street circuits. This compromise, acceptable when Red Bull had a significant advantage, now presents a significant hurdle. The inability to fundamentally redesign the car without breaching the ATR rules or the cost cap leaves Red Bull in a precarious position, potentially hampering their competitiveness in future seasons.
The power unit gamble
One of Wolff’s key arguments in his charm offensive with Verstappen revolves around the upcoming power unit changes for 2026. Red Bull’s move into in-house engine development with Red Bull Powertrains, supported by Ford, represents a significant gamble. While good progress has been made, the young company lacks the experience of established giants such as Mercedes, Ferrari and Honda.
Mercedes, with a proven track record of dominating the turbo-hybrid era from 2014, presents a strong case for Verstappen. The reliability of Mercedes High-Performance Powertrains contrasts sharply with the relative uncertainty of Red Bull’s new power unit project. While publicly supportive of Red Bull’s efforts, Verstappen may reconsider at the first sign of weakness.
The challenge for Red Bull is not only the technical aspect of engine development, but also the organisational and logistical hurdles of building a competitive power unit from scratch. Mercedes’ success in the hybrid era was built on years of experience and a robust development framework.
Red Bull, despite its recent successes, faces a steep learning curve and significant risks with its new engine programme.
Nico Rosberg’s insider knowledge
Nico Rosberg, the 2016 world champion who drove for Mercedes, has suggested that Verstappen may indeed be considering a move to the Silver Arrows.
“If Max Verstappen, who is one of the five best drivers of all time, comes on the market, you have to snap him up immediately,” Rosberg said in an interview with Sky Sports.
Rosberg’s insight carries weight given his history with Mercedes and his understanding of the intricacies of Formula One team dynamics. His comments suggest that rumours of a possible move for Verstappen are not unfounded and that there are substantive discussions going on behind the scenes.
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More than a 50 per cent chance?
Rosberg’s comments have caused quite a stir, as he revealed his belief that there is a significant possibility of Verstappen joining Mercedes.
“And my gut feeling, from what I hear here, also tells me that there is more than a 50 per cent chance that he will go to Mercedes,” said Rosberg, referring to the rumours circulating in the paddock during the Hungarian Grand Prix.
Rosberg’s claim that there is more than a 50 per cent chance of Verstappen joining Mercedes adds a new dimension to the speculation. It suggests that the likelihood of such a move is greater than many had previously thought, adding credibility to the rumours and heightening the anticipation of potential changes in the driver market.
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The Mercedes advantage
One of the factors highlighted by Rosberg is Mercedes’ potential advantage in the upcoming 2026 engine regulations.
“You also hear that they really have a head start in engine development at Mercedes, especially for the new 2026 regulations, and that is also crucial, of course,” he noted. Reflecting on his own experience, Rosberg emphasised how Mercedes’ superior engine power was a key factor during his tenure with the team.
Mercedes’ engineering prowess and strategic foresight in preparing for the new regulations could give them a significant competitive advantage. This advantage could be a key factor in attracting Verstappen, who will want to be in the best possible position to continue his success in the new regulatory era.
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Looking ahead
As the 2024 season progresses, speculation over Verstappen’s future is likely to intensify. The combination of Red Bull’s internal discord and Mercedes’ apparent strategic advantage going forward could provide a compelling case for Verstappen to consider a move. Whether Verstappen does indeed make the move remains to be seen, but Rosberg’s comments have certainly added a fascinating dimension to the ongoing story.
In the high-stakes world of Formula One, driver movements and team dynamics are constantly evolving. As fans and pundits alike keep a close eye on developments, the potential for a seismic shift in the grid is palpable. For now, Verstappen remains a Red Bull driver, but whispers of a future with Mercedes continue to reverberate throughout the paddock.
The ongoing narrative around Verstappen’s future highlights the fluid nature of Formula One, where team dynamics and competitive advantage can shift rapidly. Verstappen’s decision is likely to depend on several factors, including Red Bull’s ability to address its internal issues and maintain competitive performance, and Mercedes’ continued development and strategic positioning for the future.
Whatever the outcome, the potential for significant changes to the driver line-up adds excitement and uncertainty to the sport, keeping fans and teams on the edge of their seats as the drama unfolds.
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With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
