Formula One’s transition to ground-effect regulations in 2022 was heralded as a game-changer, promising to reshuffle the competitive deck that had long been dominated by a few top teams. Not all transitions are seamless, however, and for Mercedes, the celebrated multiple Constructors’ Champions, the shift has proven to be a challenging quagmire.

This was highlighted during the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka, where Mercedes’ problems with strategy and tyre management highlighted deeper issues that have plagued the team since the regulatory overhaul.

 

 

Suzuka: A case study in ongoing struggles

The Japanese Grand Prix, held at the Suzuka circuit, is renowned for its demanding layout that tests both driver skill and car performance. For Mercedes, represented by Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, the race was less about fighting for the podium and more about managing the deterioration of their tyres and track position.

Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff suggested after the race that their conservative approach to tyre wear had cost them dearly in terms of pace. In contrast, Andrew Shovlin, Mercedes’ senior trackside engineer, insisted in a video interview that the real problem was overloading the tyres, which led to overheating, particularly in traffic, significantly reducing grip and increasing tyre degradation.

“In Suzuka the tyres run quite hot. And when you get into traffic, they overheat a little. Then the grip decreases and you slide more.” said Shovlin, 

Mercedes struggled with their hard Pirelli tyres, “especially in the slower corners”.

Shovlin specifically mentions the hairpin and the chicane before the start and finish: “We lost a lot of time there…”

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Tyres an issue

Both Hamilton and Russell struggled with the hard compound tyres, particularly in slower sections of the track such as the hairpin and the start/finish chicane. Shovlin pointed out that these were the areas where the drivers lost the most time, exacerbated by the challenge of following other cars closely.

“It was difficult for them to get the car through the corners,” explained Shovlin, noting that the problems were exacerbated as the tyres aged, increasing slippage and further raising temperatures.

The problem left both drivers reeling towards the end of their first hard tyre stint, with the team still puzzling over the cause and extent of their competitive disadvantage to rivals such as Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, who also opted for a long first stint, but with significantly better performance.

It became clear “when we fell off in the first stint” that just one stop would not be enough for the racing distance, explains Shovlin. But first keep “all options” open.

“And there’s actually nothing stopping you from changing [strategy] until you decide to do exactly that,” he says.

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Strategy missteps and technical problems

Mercedes’ strategy at Suzuka initially appeared to be based on a one-stop race, a plan that quickly unravelled as stint performance waned. This necessitated a switch to a two-stop strategy, but by then considerable time had been lost. Shovlin noted that while a safety car period could have provided a reprieve, it was not to be.

“We could perhaps have benefited from a safety car phase, but there wasn’t one,” he said.

The later stages of the race saw improved performance on the hard and medium tyres, with cooler track temperatures possibly playing a role.

“It was certainly cooler towards the end of the race,” says Shovlin.

“The car’s performance in stints two and three was exactly what we expected.”

Race data showed that while Mercedes had lost around 15 seconds to Max Verstappen in the first stint, Russell managed to stabilise the gap in the second stint and only increased it slightly in the final third of the race.

“We are not fast enough. We know that,” concludes Shovlin.

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Damage incurred

Despite these recoveries, both drivers finished well off the pace, pointing to a wider problem with the car’s pace compared to front-runners such as Red Bull, and even closer rivals such as McLaren and Ferrari.

Aero imbalance also played a part in Mercedes’ misfortune. Hamilton experienced increased understeer from the start due to a damaged front wing, the result of an early contact with Leclerc. The compromised aerodynamics exacerbated handling issues that were already difficult due to the day’s high track temperatures, which forced the car’s set-up to be adjusted before the race began.

“This increased the understeer that we already had in the first stint,” says Shovlin.

This hit Mercedes doubly hard, according to its lead engineer: “Even on the starting grid, the track was so hot that we had to remove some of the front wing. The additional downforce loss [due to the contact] then caused the big problems. The front axle was therefore the issue entire first stint.”

“We didn’t change the wing, but we set the flaps steeper. This gave the car a better balance,” explains Shovlin.

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The wider impact of the ground effect regulations on Mercedes

Since the introduction of ground effect aerodynamics in 2022, designed to improve the ability of cars to closely follow and overtake each other,

Mercedes have been grappling with fundamental issues surrounding these changes. In contrast to its dominant form up to 2021, the team has struggled to adapt its car design effectively to these new regulations, which emphasise under-car aerodynamics and a different balance between downforce and mechanical grip.

The struggles have been evident not just in individual races, but as a consistent theme throughout the seasons after 2022. The team’s inability to consistently challenge for race wins, let alone championships, marks a significant decline for a team that once seemed invincible. Ongoing technical challenges, strategic mistakes and underperformance in races where tyre management is critical highlight a period of intense learning and adaptation for Mercedes.

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In a world of precision and innovation, the Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team’s 2023 campaign has become a case study in unforeseen challenges and dwindling fortunes. With Toto Wolff at the helm, the team’s struggles at the Japanese Grand Prix laid bare the harsh realities facing the sport’s once dominant force.

The introduction of the W15, heralded as a beacon of hope and progress, has instead become a symbol of the team’s ongoing plight. As the season progresses, Mercedes’ ambitions of regaining their top-flight status appear to be receding further and further into the distance. The stark contrast in performance at Suzuka, where Lewis Hamilton and George Russell were stuck in midfield and unable to…READ MORE ON THIS STORY