#F1 Foresics: Vettel vs Raikkonen. Is Sebastian worth the Cost?

Brought to you by TheJudge13 Technical Analyst Tourdog

The rumors are that Kimi took a 75% pay cut to stay at Ferrari in 2016.

This year Sebastian is making 28,000,000 Euro, and Kimi is making 18,000,000, but is Vettel really “10,000,000 Euro faster”?

Next year will he be “23,500,000 Euro faster?”

Let’s take a look at their lap times, and debate wether  Ferrari made the deal of the century when they resigned Kimi..

Click Here to view this table in a new window.

For more interesting numbers visit the CHANCERY’S ARCHIVE

20 responses to “#F1 Foresics: Vettel vs Raikkonen. Is Sebastian worth the Cost?

  1. I’ll say what many people won’t say….

    Kimi is a washed up relic! And this is coming from someone who was a fan of his during his McLaren years.

    I saw some stats recently of his record against Alonso and Seb in terms of qualifying and race before Spa. He has been out qualified 24-3 and out raced 24-5. Based on those numbers, he’s lucky to still be in the sport next season.

    Last season they said this years car would be more to his liking, but so far we’ve only seen 2 decent race from him (Australia and Bahrain). Past reputation is keeping him relevant, because it’s surely not his on track performance.

  2. “The rumors are that Kimi took a 75% pay cut to stay at Ferrari in 2016. This year Sebastian is making 28,000,000 Euro, and Kimi is making 18,000,000” [Citation needed]

    On a different note, not to “whine”, but can the esteemed Technical Analyst Tourdog explain “howl” to analyse the table (or better yet, actually analyse it himself).

    • I refuse to link to a coffe shop joe article, so if you want to read about Kimi’s pay cut you can go there. And it is also why I specifically called it a rumor, and not a source.

      Do you really not understand the table?
      You cannot see that it is a side by side comparison of lap times, that it is broken down into stints, and separated by tire, so we have an apples to apples comparison?
      I would love to have the time to write 500 words on how Kimi was 2 seconds a lap faster in the Bahrian race on the soft tire, but the table pretty much does that for me.

      I encourage you to look it over closely, and draw some of your own conclusions.
      If you were to write those down and post them here, you would actually be contributing.

    • Playing devils advocate…
      Then how do we explain Alonso?
      He is the highest paid driver in F1, but when was the last time he won a title?
      He has not gotten “the results” in quite a while, yet he is still considered to be one of the top drivers, and is being paid accordingly.
      I can only assume that is because he is “fast”, and not because he is winning races.

  3. Fastest laps don’t count as much as points. And in points vettel has a comfortable amount more than Kimi, and before you say Kimi had more bad luck, in the ones he didn’t how many times did he have more than vettel? Not much. Once? I’d say for Ferrari he is worth the cost. He will be closer to bringing them a title than Kimi will. But seeing that ferrari want the constructors Kimi is good enough the bring in the needed points along side vettel for that cause.

    • Teams want WCC more than WDC. I thought especially Ferrari would want that more than any other. But I heard they prefer WDC over WCC from someone I don’t remember. Maybe it’s more easily remembered or somehow more prestigious? I dunno. They surely don’t need the money.

    • Can’t win a constructors title when your #2 driver is consistently underperforming both in qualifying and in the races.

      Look at Spa, a track that he always go well at? He didn’t look like he was even in the race at all

      • But his quali was down to a breaking ferrari. If that hadn’t been his race wouldn’t been half as bad…

        • Poor excuse. He started ahead of Max and was fortunate to finish ahead of him. To make it worse, Max did a 3 stop race. Kimi is in the 2nd fastest car of the grid, so he should’ve at least finished higher than he did.

  4. The difference between second and first is worth the price from Ferrari’s perspective, so yes, Seb is worth the price.
    As much as I would have loved to see Hulk line up alongside Seb, that would be in the Hulks interest (and I would say the neutral fans interest), but not Ferrari’s.
    Retaining Kimi seems like a sensible team decision from Ferrari (even if disappointing from a fans perspective).
    I have to admit I don’t actually see a massive drop off from Kimi since rejoining Ferrari, he couldn’t qualify in the Lotus either, and could have achieved so much more there just as now had he been able to start higher up, but as his teammate was ‘only’ Rogro then that didn’t harm his reputation as he still got the better results. Having Seb or Alonso as teammate will, they (almost) always maximise their return, which is why they are worth the money.
    So one more chance for Kimi, hope he makes the most of it.

  5. I’ll answer the question the other way around. Is Kimi worth 4.5 million?

    Yes, that would be a fairly economical purchase if he scores 150 points or more. Less than 30k per point is great value, and that’s without the marketing value Ferrari get from him being a Ferrari World Championship winning driver. That also excludes his popularity factor.

    Raikkonen is to Vettel what Berger was to Senna. They have a great working relationship, the number 1, number 2, roles are clearly demarcated by their on track performances, and in the event of Ferrari developing a championship winning car, Raikkonen has the experience and mentality to bring home good points consistently without threatening Vettel.

    The only reason not to hire Raikkonen would be if he were the deciding factor between Ferrari winning the Constructor’s championship or finishing second.

    I think Ferrari have made a pragmatic decision in that they are not realistically fighting for first, not really threatened for second. Likely as not, they will be in the same position next year. Raikkonen is the cheapest low risk option with good potential upside benefits.

    That being said, the decision wouldn’t have taken this long if he had a few more points to his name!

  6. This is basically just a data dump. It doesn’t give any insight at all. How about doing some actual analysis with it, and summarizing for us? How much faster is Seb overall? On what tyres is his advantage greatest/smallest? Which driver tends to produce their best in which sessions throughout the weekend? Y’know, that sort of thing.

  7. What you failed to mention is that they are almost never on the same strategy. Makes the whole point moot. You cannot compare the times directly.

    • No two drivers are ever on exactly the same strategy, and we don’t know specifically how much fuel is in any car at any given point.
      I have made that point several times in the other articles leading up to this one, and it is something I would like to resolve, but I just don’t see the teams ever giving out that info unless they are forced to.
      However, I disagree that the “whole point is moot”.

      One of the reasons I have included a count of how many laps were run each stint, is that we can assume a relative fuel level in each car based on the length of that stint (for the FP sessions).

      In the races, I think the comparison works better. If both drivers start on the same tire, and they are most likely starting with a near identical fuel load, then we end up with a pretty straight comparison of the two drivers relative speed over an entire stint.

      Yes, there will always be outside factors influencing a drivers pace, like traffic for instance. But by filtering out pit laps, scratch laps, safety car laps, etc, I have narrowed the focus down to a point where we can get at least closer to a straight comparison.

  8. I don’t want to sound critical because I really am not trying to be. I’m trying to read this on my phone and it’s damn near impossible. I’ll try again on an iPad and laptop to see how different the experience is but… perhaps a graph or two would make this a better experience? I know there are perils to this but still…

    Great work with all the data. I hope you find a good data scraper to avoid all the manual input in the future.

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