Despite what the Judge has previously written on TJ13, in this humble writers opinion, Bottas is Mercedes’ best viable option to replace Rosberg at Mercedes. Wehrlein is just not experienced enough to take Rosberg’s seat right now.
Bottas has been at the Grove outfit for all of his F1 career, but Vallteri has been courted by Ferrari and Renault in this and previous season.
Bottas is fast
We all know and respect Massa. Massa is able, Massa is fast. However, Bottas has out-qualified Massa 17:4. This can only be rivaled by Schumacher, who out-qualified Massa 13:4 in the 2006 season. While comparing Bottas to Schumacher might be a step too far, it does signal Bottas abillities!
Bottas has the experience
Vallteri has been test driving at Williams since 2010, promoting to a driver’s seat in 2013, as teammate of Pastor Maldonado. Setting him apart form Crashtor, Vallteri quickly gained a reputation for reliability, and avoiding accidents.
Bottas is connected
Obviously Bottas is locked into a contract at Williams. Williams uses Mercedes power, Wolff manages Bottas and has excellent contacts at Williams since he used to own Williams shares. All ingredients are present for our getting Bottas out of the Williams, and into the Mercedes.
This week the French newspaper L’Équipe revealed that Williams is discussing a return of Massa behind the wheel of the Williams for the 2017 season. If Massa’s return to partner Williams F1 rookie Lance Stroll is imminent, this would free Bottas to sign for Mercedes.
The deal seems complex, as Wolff already said Mercedes wouldn’t be signing their second driver before the end of the year. Most of us expect this is just a smoke-screen, just to alleviate some of the immense pressure parties involved must feel. However, the idea of putting of a deal this long can only mean that the scenarios are clear, and only details remain.
The devil is in the detail, especially for Williams, since loss of championship point might directly translate into less money for Williams if they lose places in the 2017 manufacturer championship. The 10 million Mercedes offered (and we might even see some other goodies?) will surely grow to make any chance of lost championship points hurt less.
Therefore it is only a matter of time before Mercedes will announce Bottas’ transfer, but if they had any balls, they would call Sainz.
From the ED: Can the Jury please let us know whether in your opinion Bottas is worthy of the Mercedes seat or if it should be Sainz. Or perhaps someone else entirely.
Please give your reasons in the comments below.
The payment for Bottas has to be large due to the lost of sponsors. If Massa comes back maybe it will bring sponsors. I think Williams will make a large mistake in trading Bottas this year but they are “nice” and will not affect its future.
Sainz, no doubt, if Merc wants someone similar to Rosberg in terms of performance (or better).
Bottas, if Merc wants a handy #2. Compared to Hamilton, Bottas is just about average, and roughly on the same level as Massa and Raikkonen.
And certainly not Wehrlein, at least not yet. He’s much of an unknown quantity as of yet, but assuming Manor chassis was on par with Sauber this year, Pascal performed on the same level as Magnussen or Massa…
But if they want the absolute best out there, driving wise, Fred is still the no-brainer choice.
https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2016/12/02/2016-model-based-driver-rankings/
Sainz or Bottas is all the same!
Sainz was outpaced by Verstappen on everything since Canada 2015. And after the swap he was teamed up with a demoralised Kvyat (who was close to Sainz or faster in the last races) wich made him look very good.
He had some good results, but due to consitancy and keeping out of trouble. Not due to his outstanding racecraft and overtaking skills.
He is good Bottas, Perez, Grosjean and Hulkenberg level. But nothing more than those drivers! All capable to clinch a title if things all come their way. But guys like Verstappen, Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel can make a difference.
So it doesn’t matter for quality if they take Sainz or Bottas but I think Bottas deserves it more at this point of time.
I voted for Sainz but I’m pretty sure it will be Bottas that goes to M-B. As for Wehrlein – he’s too inexperienced and he looks like a wimp.
I do believe wehrlein has a considerable amount more experience than Hamilton did when was placed in the macca in his first year. At the end of the day merc just want a number 2 driver or they would have just coughed up what ever they needed to buy Fred or Max out of their contracts. So it makes no difference who they take really…
Not so. Hamilton did lots and lots of testing for McLaren in an up to date car prior to 2007. There was no testing ban then or limit to how much testing could be done.
I think I read somewhere in the range of 20K km.
Take Sainz away from Red Bull might destabilise the first team and work in Mercs favour, but really Alonso should still be the first choice. Won’t believe he isn’t available until the drive is given to someone else, this is F1 after all.
Why not Massa for Mercedes as a shortcut to all the trouble?
Massa could settle a few old scores with Lewis!
Bottas. Just solid, like a Ford Mondeo.
Disregarding all obvious obstacles that make it unlikely , it would be nice to see how Sainz holds up under serious pressure of a top 5 car.
Sainz has way more upside than Bottas.
Bottas is totally in the mould of Rosberg, Button, Webber, et al. Good not great. No real threat to Lewis.
For mine, there’s a je ne sainz quoi about Carlos jnr that hints at a possible greatness. 😉
I tend to agree with the author. Bottas is, from Mercedes view, the ‘safe’ option. He’s fast, capable, and unlikely to upset the other driver or Toto. Sainz, on the other hand, is a bit more edgy and younger. He matched up well to Verstappen and could well be snapping at Hamilton’s heels from the get go. I believe he would develop quite rapidly into a real force to be reckoned with. He is unlikely to be at STR in 2018 as he will have done the 3 year stint and it may be wise for MB to get him now before the rush at the end of 2017 when a lot of contracts expire (including Hamilton’s I believe).
He didn’t match up well. From Canada 2015 he was only holding on by a straw to keep up!
He laost almost every decent qualifying from Canada forward if Ves didn’t have mechanical problems during qualifying.
Where Ves was mainly between P5 and P10 in races Sainz was Mainly between P9 and P14.
Ves was in front of Sainz 2/3 of all laps raced together.
Ves scored way more points and also would have done it if not they didn’t had all the mecanical problems.
In the end Ves won the duel in races and qualifying.
The difference was substantial if you look closer than the numbers!
And it isn’t coinsidence that RB gone passed Sainz twice. They have lots of data and this data showed Ves was stronger…..
Hamilton is locked on to Mercedes until the end of 2018. But knowing his antics, he might well retire at the end of 2017 itself! Alonso and Sainz in a Mercedes in 2018 would be lip-smacking! 😁
PS: I know it is a lot of wishful thinking!
I’m sorry but I have to say Hamilton has been acting like a proper loser since losing the WDC, he’s actually been having digs at Rosberg and Mercedes for Channel 4. Reading all he has said since then, I have to say, he is a great driver, deserved champion but also the biggest pussy behind a wheel in F1. He’s got the trophies of a winner but the personality of a loser. And he’s not even from the ghetto, he never had to ‘rise’ out of there. He is totally delusional but that’s ok when you got all the millions, I would be to.
“This can only be rivaled by Schumacher, who out-qualified Massa 13-4 in the 2006 season”
Check your facts!
Alonso beat Massa 18-2 in 2012, and even their overall count over 4 seasons (59-18) is a better ratio than Schumachers 13-4.
Overall their % Quali wins against Massa is:
Schumacher: 77.8%
Alonso: 76.6%
Bottas: 69.5%
Also…. Define “fast”. Qualifying is one thing, race day is another. Here is their % finishing in front in 2-car finishes:
Alonso: 89.2%
Schumacher: 78.6%
Bottas: 48.8%
Yes, surprisingly Massa finished in front of Bottas more often than not!.. When he finished that is 😉
My summary: Bottas is pretty quick in quali & solid but not that fast on race day. A good boring subservient no.2 for Mercedes. Not such a good choice for the fans who want to see someone who can give Ham some trouble on race day.
I bet on race match bets, which is basically betting on a driver to beat him teammate and Bottas was pretty reliable in the beginning of the season but he had become to unpredictable in the later half of the race. I really do feel Bottas had a poor season this year, he was more impressive before. Let’s hope next season is another one of his impressive seasons. At the moment, you can get double your money on Hamilton to win next year’s championship and I don’t see anyone challenging him next season
No red bull Merc PU = No Sainz drive at Merc. If it does happen it will be over Dr Marko’s dead body!
Mercedes can have the biggest balls, but until Red Bull re-signs Ricciardo, Mercedes doesn’t have a chance. Why would Red Bull let Sainz go? They need a proper third driver with their current top guy going into a contract year.
Well let us first see if he can outmatch a renewed Kvyat to begin with!
The last few races didn’t look that confincing in favour for Sainz, and if Kvyat becomes his old self over the winter Sainz beating him isn’t a done deal!
Although everybody keeps saying (don’t not know on what facts) that Sainz was a close match to Verstappen, the difference from Canada 2015 forward was there and only kept growing. The difference was substantial in the end and Sainz had some good results, but due to consitancy and not his outstanding racecraft.
So I’m not sure he is their future third driver, although he is for now. But if Kvyat gets his momentum back it all could be over for Sainz. For Sainz a 2nd seat at Mercedes could be his best chance at a top level seat….
I don’t get it… Why go for Sainz? He hasn’t done anything really impressive so far. Kind of feels like a midfield driver. Bottas always had something more than that going for him.