#F1 Odds Analysis – #MalaysianGP

In a new feature for 2014, TheJudge13 will look into Formula One odds from bookmakers analysing what the odds would suggest.  We would invite readers to get involved and tell us if you think they are a fair reflection of what is set to be an amazing season ahead of us.

Last time out

With so much anticipation from a winter away, the start seemed like a slight anti-climax with another parade lap being forced by the faulty Marussia of Jules Bianchi we were forced to wait even longer.  The previous chatter about the lack of fuel this year was aided by the safety car, causing less fuel to be used for those laps.

Fernando beat Kimi, Magnussen outshone Button and Ricciardo performed strongly (even if not necessarily legally).  Whether this will be the same again remains to be seen.  The Force India outfit had a solid race weekend, although did not produce anything spectacular.  Could they be the dark horses in Speang?

Looking ahead

Following an action packed opener in Australia, the intrigue is equally as high for this time out in Malaysia.  Flow-gate has dominated the headlines for the past week and a half and is only set to do so.  How will the controversy surrounding Red Bull and the flow sensors affect their weekend?

Also, will the Williams team be able to continue the strong form they showed last time out?  Having been taken out at the first corner, Felipe Massa will once again have high hopes of a strong showing without incident.  Will the McLarens continue to their scintillating start and challenge at the front?

With rain predicted for all three days, it could be a very hard weekend to predict.

Hot to trot

Felipe Massa to score a podium – 5/2 – After being taken out before reaching the first corner in Melbourne we are yet to see what the Brazilian can do with his new team.  He is well priced to take a top 3 finish here.

Jenson Button race win – 14/1 –While this may seem like a purely speculative call, there is no denying the prowess of Jenson in the rain.  With showers predicted for the whole weekend and the proven strong package of the McLaren, could this be man from Frome’s first win since Brazil 2012?

Vettel or Ricciardo fastest qualifier – 14/1 and 20/1 – Another admittedly unlikely occurrence, but given the pace the Red Bulls showed in qualifying before there is clearly pace in the car to be unlocked.  With qualifying looking to be wet, it could be one of the RB pair who claim pole!

A punt on a grunt

A look at a more speculative market – Free Practice 1 is set to be wet.  It really could be a lottery as to who will be fastest.  With some very long odds on non-Mercedes cars, it could be a market of interest.

—–

We all look forward to an incredible second weekend of the season.  How it will all pan out is mystery, so let’s sit back and enjoy the ride!

TJ13 only suggests responsible gambling.  For advice on the subject visit www.gambleaware.co.uk/     From all the team – enjoy the race!

 

~ by adamac39 on March 27, 2014.

One Response to “#F1 Odds Analysis – #MalaysianGP”

  1. SteveH in the USofA watching free practice 1 and some thoughts.

    1. Ted Kravitz: STFU.
    1.1 Bruno Senna: huh? You crashed your car and have no credibility. WTF? Why are you even talking on TV?????
    2. Noses; REALLY REALLY ugly. Can’t you guys figure this out??? I could.
    3. Engine sound: awful, really awful. I love the sound of machinery at the edge; that’s what F1 is (was) about. Indycar is better.
    4. Broadcast times: I’ve been watching and attending F1 races since way too long (1980’s). I can’t drink a beer (well, I could but…) at 1:00 am (US live broadcast for Malaysia and 5:00 am for the European races)…..attention Bernie re attracting American fans – not working. I’m a (was) passionate fan but …….do only the French and the English and the Germans et al get to watch races in the afternoon?
    5. Just give the teams 100 kg of fuel and let them do what they can or will.
    6. WTF: Let the teams decide things like front/rear weight balance.
    7. This is not fun anymore. I suspect I’m through.

    Good luck to FOM in getting an American audience (and I’m from NZ).

    The list is endless and these are a late Thursday free practice 1 (US) post with not a lot of thought or whatever. But really, F1 is losing the picture and the focus. Maybe, just maybe, I am out of here. Listen to comments like this FOM, because we are what gave you all that money. With no fans there is no F1. But this is not the business model. Too bad.

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